Economy and religious tourism : the phenomenon of pilgrimages to Marian sanctuaries . 2018

For centuries pilgrimages are present in Christianity. For Catholics, the importance of devotions and visits to the Marian sanctuaries is indisputable. The number of visitors and pilgrims to these temples make the local economy an important destination of religious tourism. In order to understand the economic determinants of religious tourism, two sanctuaries were studied, namely, Aparecida (Brazil) and Fatima (Portugal). Given the large collection of statistical information of the Portuguese Sanctuary, it was verified through the Vector Autoregressive model that Gross Domestic Product and Unemployment have a causal unidirectional relation with the pilgrimages. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model revealed that an increase in Gross Domestic Product and international arrivals in the short term positively impacts the number of pilgrims. Through the Ordinary Least Squares regression, significant statistical relationships between climatic factors (rain volume and average temperature) and visitors in the Sanctuary of Fatima were found. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average forecast method was applied to the number of monthly visitors to the Sanctuary of Aparecida and to  Orientador: Prof. Dr. José Alberto Fuinhas (Universidade da Beira Interior). Coorientadores: Prof. Dr. António Cardoso Marques (Universidade da Beira Interior) e Prof. Dr. Marco Daniel Duarte (Santuário de Nossa Senhora do Rosário de Fátima). Defesa ocorrida em 23 de julho de 2018. País de origem: Brasil. E-mail do autor: matheus.belucio@hotmail.com


Introduction
The first Marian apparition that has been reported will have occurred, according to Christian tradition, around the first century in Spain. There are reports of more than two thousand appearances, however, but only 16 recognized by the Vatican. In the world, among the largest sanctuaries dedicated to the Marian cult are Aparecida (in Brazil) and Fatima (in Portugal).
The "Marian apparitions" around the world have for centuries made people, mostly believers, move to contemplate this phenomenon or to be in the same place where they occurred. Pilgrimages -as these religious-tourist visits are called -move thousands of people every year and make a significant contribution to the development of the local economy.
Pilgrimage is commonly understood as praying with one's feet. In fact, the long distances are traveled, often on foot. Making use of the writings of St. John of the Cross, it means the mortification of the body, a simple practice for Christians, a "mild discomfort" that is optional and very traditional in the Church. The idea of mortification is to die for the desires of the flesh and live for the love of God. In fact, self-criticism is often seen as a variant of worldly asceticism (Aran et al., 2008;Neves, 1992;Sciadini, 1991).
The Marian pilgrims are inserted in the diverse economies around the world and move for reasons of festivity or religious precepts. The willingness to wander in the direction of a Sanctuary directly impacts the local economy and often impacts an entire region near the Sanctuary.

General and specific objectives
Some economies depend directly on tourism; in 2016 travel and tourism contributed more than 50% of GDP to the top four countries on the World Travel and Tourism Council list (WTTC, 2016). It is common to find authorities guiding their economies to obtain more tourism revenue (Aydin, 2016). For this reason, the general objective of this dissertation is to empirically collaborate to understand the economic determinants of Marian religious tourism (or Marian pilgrimages) in Portugal and to elucidate the relation "economy and pilgrimages".

Hypotheses
It is believed that religious tourism -Catholic Marian -positively impacts several economies and is related to different economic variables. Therefore, hypotheses have been established that seek to collaborate to achieve the objectives proposed in this dissertation, they are: e) There is seasonality in Marian religious tourism.

Structure of dissertation
After the introduction, the five remaining chapters of this dissertation are organized as follows: the second section reviews the existing literature on tourism and economy, drivers of tourism, religious tourism, the problematic of pilgrimages and Catholic religious' tourism Marian. Chapter three describes the methods and the reasons for using them, and the fourth chapter will present the data and empirical results. The fifth chapter will present the discussions based on the results obtained and the theoretical justification. Finally, in the sixth chapter the conclusions are presented, weaving some management and policy measures.

Literature review
This chapter will present the theoretical link on Tourism and Economy, drivers of tourism, religious tourism and the issues of pilgrimages. Catholic religious' tourism and the phenomenon of Marian pilgrimages will also be addressed. Finally, the impacts of pilgrimages and existing public policies/measures will be explored.
Tourism has become a very important opportunity for any government (Aydin, 2016). It is a source of income for resident families and destination companies (Incera & Fernández, 2015). In some cases, the tourist attraction can generate negative externalities, a fact that corroborates with Benavides (2015) that affirms that tourism does not always generate benefits for the destination.
Travels for religious purposes are understood as one more agent responsible for moving the local economy (Aulet et al., 2017). The concept of tourism is generally

Tourism and the economy
The growing interest in Tourism and Growth directed Brida et al. (2016) to make an exhaustive bibliographical review, where with some exceptions, the results suggest that global international tourism drives economic growth.
The relationship between tourism and economy is supported by the contribution to the growth of regional economies (Incera & Fernández, 2015). Balaguer & Cantavella-Jordá (2002), were the first to test the hypothesis of economic growth led by tourism (TLGH), the results pointed tourism as a factor of growth of Spanish GDP in the long term.
Currently, several researchers seek to understand the effects of tourism on the economy (Croes et al., 2018;Chulaphan & Barahona, 2017;Pérez-Rodríguez et al., 2015). There are four hypotheses of the relationship between economic growth led by tourism: (i) growth; (ii) conservation; (iii) feedback; and (iv) neutrality.

Growth
The hypothesis of growth indicates that, through the development of tourism, there is economic growth, in other words, investment in the tourism sector will lead to an increase in overall economic growth. Evidences that point to the

Conservation
In the hypothesis of conservation, it is observed that economic growth leads to the development of tourism. Investment in other sectors of the economy generates positive externalities, one of which is the development of the tourism sector. Corroborating evidence is found, among others, in studies by Aslan (2014), Payne &Mervar (2010), andOh (2005).

Feedback
The feedback hypothesis says that economic growth and tourism In the literature one can find a large number of studies that address the relationship between tourism and economic growth for several countries around the world. In Table A1, there are details of the several methodologies applied to the study of TLGH hypothesis.
Time is an important factor for the relationship between economic growth and tourism, Antonakakis et al. (2015) show that their relationship is unstable over

Income
The relationship between income and tourism appears several times in the literature (e.g. Yang & Wong, 2013;Alegre et al., 2013;Eugenio-Martin & Campos-Soria, 2011;Song & Li, 2008;Kulendran & Divisekera, 2007). The higher the prices of goods and services, the lower the demand, so the classic theory of demand is described. The purchasing power of the consumer is one of the determinants in the decision to consume whether it is a tourist service or not. Alegre et al. (2013) shows the loss of income due to family unemployment also affects participation in tourism. This is why phenomena such as the global economic crisis (Subprime Mortgage Crisis) have significantly affected international tourism (World Tourism Organization and International Labor Organization, 2013). Yang & Wong (2013) argue that adding propensity to travel and a high level of disposable income, domestic tourism can be benefited.
An important question regarding tourism spending was discussed by Dolnicar et al. (2008): What determines it and how can people be influenced to spend more?
For Alegre et al. (2013) points out that the tourist's current income has an explanatory capacity regarding the determinants of their participation in tourism and the level of tourist spending.
In tourism, the important thing is not always the number of tourists, but mainly how much they spend with the consumption of products and services. External capital is what generates the growth movement in destiny.

Safety
There are factors external to an economy that modulate the success of the tourist destination. The impact of terrorism varies according to the political regime, income and intensity of tourism (Liu & Pratt, 2017). Tourists are very concerned about their personal safety (Liu & Pratt, 2017). Since the emergence of the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) terrorist group has created tension and terror in Syria and Iraq (Khan & Estrada, 2016), as well as fear and insecurity around the world (Liu & Pratt, 2017).
Security issues contribute to the destination image and attract international visitors (Andrades & Dimanche, 2017). The Global Peace Index (2017)  Abdelmottlep (2016) indicates Portugal as the twenty-first safest country in the world (with 0.781 points), and Brazil is in the ninety-fifth position (with 0.479 points). The ranking is led by Singapore, Finland and Denmark (1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively) and points Africans (Kenya, Republic of Congo and Nigeria) as less secure countries (Abdelmottlep (2016). Li et al. (2017) points out that economic growth has been negatively affected by outbreaks of disease, terrorist attacks and critical events (eg, the Iraq War). As far as literature is concerned with safety, Buckley & Klemm (1993) stress that fear and insecurity are the main barriers to international travel. It is easily found in the literature that tourists avoid places where terrorist attacks occurred (Liu & Pratt, 2017;Araña & León, 2008).

Exchange rate
Exchange rate that occasionally add to international travels, easily becomes a obstacle. Several factors can move the exchange rate, the most common are monetary policies, econimic shocks, social instability and so on. Li et al. (2017), states that relationship of exchange rate between source and destination currency usualy affects the cost of tourist to destiny. As the effective exchange rate is one of the factors that considerably moderates the final impact that tourism has on the global economy of a territory (Andrades & Dimanche, 2017).
The most diverse economic fields are susceptible to international trade. The foreign exchange market affects the decision-making process of individuals and companies. There is evidence that the volatility of the exchange rate affects the arrivals (example: Agiomirgianakis et al., 2015) and departures (example: Yap, 2013). The impacts of exchange rate volatility can be seen in the short and long term

Climatic factors
The interaction of tourism and climate are studied by several contemporary researchers (Toth et al., 2018;Falk & Lin, 2018;Wijaya & Furqan, 2018;Craig & Feng, 2018;Weir, 2017). According to Wijaya & Furqan (2018) the tourism sector depends on the climate. But tourism itself can contribute to intensifying climate change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions (Machete, 2011).
It is also known that climatic factors affect behavior, Fikru & Gautier (2015) show that households consume more energy during the winter; Wagner et al. (2016) argue that adverse conditions discourage physical exercise. Similarly, the perception of a "bad weather" can also influence going to church or carrying out a pilgrimage. Marcum (1999) points to the climate as one of the twelve circumstances by which Presbyterians failed to attend religious service. The pattern is repeated in a study conducted by Olson (2008) where in Protestant churches, severe winter decreased the number of present on three Sundays between January and February.
In Christianity, in the twelfth century, an important defender of nature arose, Francis of Assisi. In Brazil, since 2004, Catholic authorizations have brought the environmental issue to the fore, through the campaigns of the fraternity. This reflection was reinforced and expanded further after Pope Francis published the letter enunciated Laudato Si', where memory of various requests of the Church is made to pay more attention to the environmental issue and launches an important call: "to protect our common home" (Francisco, 2015).
Climate change is a global concern, many researchers approach this in their research (Clifford & Travis, 2018;Craig & Feng, 2018;Shahbaz et al., 2016). Dube & Nhamo (2018) suggest that climate change and variability pose a real threat to the tourism industry and other economic sectors. This corroborates with Machete (2011) who points to tourism as an economic sector that anticipates that climate change will have a great impact.

Image and Publicity
From Hunt (1975) it is noticed the importance of investments by the tourist destination to develop its image, the investment causes in the tourist the desire to travel. The media plays an important role in the construction and maintenance of the image of tourist destinations (Cristea et al., 2015).
Tourism is hampered when there is no information. Rathore et al. (2017) indicates the importance of social media in the tourism industry, a corroborating fact with Andrades & Dimanche (2017) that affirm that there are destinations with great potential, but they continue to be harmed by several issues, including the image of destiny.
In religious tourism it is no different, Štefko (2015) points out several shortcomings as barriers to the development of pilgrimages and religious tourism, among them marketing communication.
The media should be recognized for its important role in the construction, promotion and maintenance of the image of tourist destinations worldwide, but poor media coverage no longer contribute to the tourism-religious offer Cristea et al. (2015). It is notorious that large Marian sanctuaries around the world have a specific sector for press and media issues such as the case of Aparecida and Fatima.
A corroborating study by Rathore et al. (2017) also indicates that the importance of text information (Wikipedia) and video content (YouTube) is increasing in the field of online tourism and indicates that the tourism department needs to focus on such content.
There are several drivers of tourism and these usually affect all types of tourism. A schematic summarizing the main drivers of religious tourism can be seen in figure 1

Figure 1 -Drivers of religious tourism
The outline describes this subsection in summary, however, goes beyond and brings to the reader other aspects relevant to the motivation of this form of tourism.
The other drivers are presented at a more opportune moment in this dissertation, in order to clarify the reason for its importance.

Religious tourism: visits to sacred sites
Since from Weber there is an understanding that the economic prosperity of some regions was attributed due to the Protestant religion. Becker & Woessmann (2009) collaborate in the debate by providing an alternative theory, where human capital is crucial to economic prosperity, that is, relate economic prosperity and better education to Protestants.
Religion can be considered a powerful instrument of social interaction. Lim & Putnan (2010) argue that the higher satisfaction observed among religious people can be explained, above all, by the level of attachment that occurs in religious services. Van Ingen & Moor (2015) point out that the frequency in religious services has been in marked decline in the West. However, there is a specific variation per country (the fall is evident in Belgium, the United States remains stable and there are cases of trend reversal, such as Romania).
Since the frequency of religious rites is an obvious measure of the level of religiosity in a given territory, it is natural that the individuals who practice it become more integrated in terms of community. Lewis et al. (2013) show that this effect reinforces the emergence of support and protection networks. The search for understanding religious tourism is a guideline for many contemporary researchers according to Monasteries attract religious tourists, but tailoring the types of tourism can bring sustainability to the regional economy. With the implementation of appropriate measures can result in more income. The region of the monasteries, can go from religious tourism, to spiritual and gastronomic tourism. Hung et al. (2017). Shaolin Monastery; kung fu; culture; commercialization; sanctity; religion; The commercialization of sacred places may contradict the values and philosophies of Buddhism. The study aims to comprehensively understand the balance between marketing and holiness. Based on the results of the study, a balanced model of religious tourism development is suggested. Moaven et al. (2017) Cultural Globalization; Religious Tourism; The awareness of globalization; Individualism; Quantitative Method; The Holy Shrine of Shah-e Cheragh.
Through a quantitative questionnaire we sought to examine the relationship between cultural globalization and religious tourism. The results indicate that information and communication technology and individualism maintain a strongly negative relationship with religious tourism, while awareness against globalization does not reveal a relationship with religious tourism.
Challenges; City; Religious Tourism; Urban Planning.
The tourism industry in this decade has brought many changes to Indian cities, diversified social and cultural identity and generated opportunities for economic development. Cities with tourism potential are facing urban planning problems. The decade's need for urban planners and designers is to be prepared for the changes in a tourist city. Relationships between people of different religions who visit the sacred sites of others are complex. Social distance is useful to explain why people of different religions visit the sacred sites of others. Four motivational domains of tourists visiting a Buddhist site are identified. Tourist-pilgrim is explained by adding a cultural / societal dimension in how the terms are defined. Cristea et al. (2015). religious tourism; religious marketing; media; identity; construction; The media plays an important role in building and maintaining the image of tourist destinations. Objective of this study was to analyze the market of religious tourism in Northern Moldova and investigate the media discourse and how it supports the marketing approach. Pilgrimage tourism is being determined by trends, with Slovakia -a country perceived as strongly Christian. The purpose of this case study is to constitute a typology of historical landmarks and attractions related to the specificities and development of the Slovak territory.
Various ancillary conditions allow cultural development: technical progress, the reduction of legal restrictions, greater notion of globality. Braga et al. (2014) defined and named different forms of cultural tourism and describes religious tourism with active and passive characteristics. Agreeing with Černá (2014)

Issues of pilgrimages
The Pilgrimage is a phenomenon that is present in various creeds. The most popular religions include it in their practice (Alvarado-Sizzo et al., 2017). The motivation of those who set out to wander, is usually the search for the sacred. Gesler (1996) defines pilgrimages as a journey of transformation. Turner (1969) states that pilgrimage is often done in a group as a matter of mobility, but it is individual in the search for the encounter with the sacred.
For Bauman (1998), devotion distinguishes the pilgrim from the tourist, the pilgrims have some characteristics: (i) they follow deep values; (ii) are tilted inwardly; (iii) build a memorial of the pilgrimage; and (iv) reflect during it. The tourist, in turn, turns away from him, is related to what is external, novelties, adventures, fleeting sensations, curiosities and pleasures (Bauman, 1998).
Becoming a pilgrim is a genuine profession of faith (Francisco, 2017). For Cardita (2012) there is a need to participate in a pilgrimage to understand the phenomenon and study it. Pilgrimage is also to leave the comfort zone itself and through the mortification of the body to seek spiritual well-being, this can be obtained even with physical wear.

Sanctuary of Fatima (Portugal)
The three children ( There is a recent expansion of the literature on the phenomenon of Fatima and the sanctuary (e.g.: Fuinhas et al., 2018;Franco & Reis, 2017;Benatti, 2016;Prazeres & Carvalho, 2015;Duarte, 2010). Santos, (2001) points out that the Sanctuary of Fatima is considered by many to be "the Altar of the World" and possessed of great religious influence. In addition, economic problems (among others) are a reason for pilgrimage to the Sanctuary of Fatima (Fortuna & Ferreira, 1993)

The municipality of Ourém
The municipality (in Portuguese, concelho) of Ourém has 416.68 km², is located in the Central Region of Portugal, which is equivalent to 31% of the territory of mainland Portugal and with a population of more than two million people (Instituto The population of the municipality, according to the sense of 2011, is 45.932 residents (Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 2011). Agriculture was the basis of the economy until the beginning of the twentieth century. In the municipality prevailed the minifundio, being the production of wine (red and white), potato and corn the main agricultural products in 1910 (Neves, 2016). Portugal still saw the agricultural sector suffer negative impacts with the implantation of the republic in 1910 and with the end of the first world war (1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918). Neves (2016) further states that due to the difficulties of survival and the state political guidelines, Ourém administration implemented food rationing measures.
Currently the municipality is divided into thirteen parishes (in Portuguese, freguesia), having Fátima received the honorific title of city, due to its spatial dimension, urban development and international projection. In Figure 2, the map of the region.  , 1940, 1950, and 1970 respectively.
In the sense of 1991 appear the last parishes that composes the municipality: Matas; Cercal and Ribeira do Farrio. In graph 2 we see the population growth of the municipality of Ourém after Marian phenomenon of Fatima.  1900 1911 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1981 1991 2001 2011 increase of devotion of the faithful. The "Old Basilica" and/or "Basilica Matrix" 5 as it is commonly known was only built in 1888 (Santuário Nacional, 2016).
In 1980 Paulo. 6 The name "Aparecida" was adopted by popular devotion and alludes to having "appeared" during fishing. 7 Except for Guinea-Bissau, where the Muslims are majority. In the next chapter will be presented the methodology applied in this dissertation, the econometric methods and the data as well as the respective descriptions of the data used.

Methodology
In this chapter the econometric models applied in this dissertation will be presented, namely: Vector Autoregressive; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The data applied to each of the models will be presented in due time due to the diversity of variables and methods.

VAR Model
From the VAR model proposed by Sims (1980) to economic studies, multivariate data analysis in the context of VAR models evolved as a standard instrument in econometrics (Pfaff, 2008). In the economic literature, several authors applied the VAR and its variations (Danish et al., 2018;Koengkan, 2018;Marques & Fuinhas, 2015;Pradhan & Bagchi, 2013;Love & Zicchino, 2006). In figure 3 presents the necessary conditions for VAR estimation: In equation 1, we see the VAR model, proper for time series: where: are the exogenous variables; 1 are coefficient matrices (k x k) for i=1,..., p; and is a vector of white noise.

ARDL model
In the ARDL model, the order of integration of the variables must be I (0) where, p correspond to the dependent variable; w corresponds to the exogenous variables in the models; and +3 are the coefficients of the dependent variables; +2 and +4 are the coefficients of the explanatory variables; − , −1 and −1 correspond to the lags of the dependent variable and explanatory variables; and the error term.
After the estimation of the model, some attention is required: The negative signal of the ECM indicates the explanatory capacity in the long term; The presence of Heteroskedasticity invalidates the results; In the presence of outliers the same must be controlled through the stability or impulse dummies; The statistic and Jarque-Bera indicates the normality of the model.

Model SARIMA
As the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is the most popular in time series prediction affair, this model can adjust to almost all time series data with the desired precision (Haque & Haque, 2017;LiHui & Hayashi, 2014;Chen et al., 2008). The method can be applied to various fields such as business, people, finances, carbon prices, tourism, natural phenomena among others (Qin et al., 2017;Haque & Haque, 2017;Zheng et al., 2016;Valipour, 2015).
The ARIMA models use the Box-Jenkins methodology developed in 1976, known as the short-term prediction model (Granger & Newbold, 1977). Classic time series prediction methods such as ARIMA can only model linear patterns in time series (Box et al., 2015). ARIMA uses the values of the lags of the series itself, through a temporal correlation (Gujarati & Porter, 2011). Predictions can be obtained through econometric models, technical analysis of graphs and trends, and qualitative and intuitive support (Eiteman et al., 2013).
Cavalcanti Netto (2007) points out that the results of analyzes with these models show that the best prediction results are obtained between 5 and 10 years of monthly information, particularly in the presence of seasonality. If there is a seasonal component in the series. The appropriate model is called SARIMA and can be seen in specification 1.

SARIMA (p, d, q)(P, D, Q)
(1) where p is the order of the non-seasonal autoregressive model; d is the number of non-seasonal diferences; q is the order of non-seasonal moving average model; P is the order of seasonal autoregressive model; Q is the order of seasonal moving average model; D is the number of seasonal diferences; and s is the periodic term.
In order to give robustness to the forecast model, some diagnostic tests are necessary: (i) stationary; (ii) heteroskedasticity; and (iii) Ljung-Box test, to verify the existence of white noise. The adequacy of the ARIMA model is generally supported through the use of mean error, absolute mean error, mean square error, or Theil-U statistic (Sato, 2013).

Data and empirical results
In this chapter will be presented the data of the pilgrimages to the Sanctuary

Graph 4 -Pilgrims in the Sanctuary of Fatima
During the period of the economic crisis the number of pilgrims had the worst results. In 2017 for all festivities and the papal visit one notes the second best mark since there are records.

VAR Model
In table 3 presents the variables, acronyms and databases and / or information systems where the data were obtained. The descriptive statistics of the variables are also presented.    The stability condition is often referred to as stationarity condition in the time series literature Lütkepohl (2005). Details table 7, where the stable VAR(p) is stationary, because stability implies stationarity. The normality statistics were still tested, the results of Jarque-Bera, Skewness and Kurtosis present results within the normal range, table A6 details in the appendix.

ARDL model
For the ARDL model the embedded time horizon is from 1995 to 2015. Table   8 presents the variables used in this model, their acronyms and the transformations performed. The descriptive statistics of the model reveals the nature of the variables that were initially transformed into per capita and passed to natural logarithms.
Other tests, namely ADF and PP, were applied to provide more characteristics about the data (details table A8). In table 9 the mean of the VIF statistic reveals that the model is within the standards to proceed with the estimation.  The results of the model presented ECM of -2.03 and ̅ 2 of 0.84%, values acceptable for an estimation. It is noted that when the pilgrimage increases by 1%, there is an increase of 0.46% in short-term pilgrimages. International arrivals and GDP also have a positive effect on short-term pilgrimages, 1.33% and 3.28%, respectively. Unemployment shows a low impact in the short term, when it increases by 1% the pilgrimages increase by 0.08%. In the long run, GDP and unemployment have a negative effect on pilgrimages -1.74 and -0.01, respectively. Expenditure on travel services shows a positive sign in the long term, that is, when travel expenses increase by 1%, pilgrimages increase by 0.55%.  There is a great similarity with the phenomenon of the pilgrimages to the Sanctuary of Fatima and the visits to the Sanctuary of Aparecida, both demonstrate the creased pattern and the structure also reveals a strong seasonality. To verify more characteristics of the variables the ADF test (table A9) indicates that both series are not stationary (in level).
To improve the estimation of the model, we chose to use the EViews addins, Automatic ARIMA Selection, in this procedure we used the variable in natural logarithms and obtained, Seasonal Autoregressive Error Specification (SAR)12, the others model specifications can be seen in the OLS regression (table 12). The operators "L" and "D" denote natural logarithm and first differences, respectively.
The R 2 (0.89%) indicates that the model has ideal forecasting capability. The constant and the terms of the moving average error specification (1 and 2) were removed from the regression because they were not statistically significant. The residuals of the estimation do not present any abnormality. Details can be seen in the appendix, graph A2. The model also agrees with the literature regarding the sample size (Cavalcanti Netto, 2007).  The R 2 of the model for forecasting the Sanctuary of Fatima is 0.84%. The ̅ 2 is 0.83%, indicating a good forecasting capacity. The constant and the term AR (1) were removed from the regression because they were not statistically significant. In graph A3, details of the residuals from the estimation can be observed.
As in the previous model the Durbin-Watson statistic presents a low value.
Again, the assumption for the validity of autocorrelation through the DW statistic can not be confirmed due to the removal of the constant. Through the Arima Selection function, the ARIMA model was obtained, also with the presence of seasonality (SARIMA).
Following the EViews Forecast function was used and the results of the estimation can be seen in table 14.  To verify the robustness of the estimates, the ARCH test of Heteroskedasticity and the Jarque-Bera statistic were tested. Details table 15.  forecast. The Jarque-Bera test for Fatima shows that the wastes are not normally distributed. Similar results were found by Yuan (2016) which clarifies that the nonnormal distribution of residues can be caused by not treating a possible non-linear characteristic.

OLS regression
For the year 2015, the Sanctuary of Fatima made available a series containing the number of daily visitors (comprising data from January 1th to December 31th), in this variable the visitors and pilgrims are not distinguished, that is, the total of people who have visited the Sacred space. Sample details, graph 5.

Graph 5 -Visitors in 2015 (Sanctuary of Fatima)
As shown in the graph, one can see the huge volatility in the number of visitors throughout the year. There are 5 peaks that exceed 100,000 visitors. Being the celebration of the feast of the first appearance (happened on 05/13/1917) the period that takes the greatest influx of visitors to the Marian Sanctuary. Table 16 presents the description of the data and descriptive statistics of the variables.    The Ramsey Reset test presents a probability of 0.1649, we can conclude that the regression follows statistical normality. The results are in agreement with the central limit theorem, that is, when the sample size is large, the distribution of the mean is an approximately normal distribution. Table 19 shows the results of the heteroskedasticity check. We conclude that the model is homoscedastic, but there is still a little ARCH effect, it opens the hypothesis for analyzes with models that deal better with the volatility in time series. In the next chapter of this dissertation several issues are discussed regarding Religious Tourism and Economy, as well as the proposal of public measures.

Discussion of results
This century also known as information century, it is necessary to retain data and use them. Temples as a place of worship often do not have this concern, but the faster religions become aware of the wealth of information, how soon they can adjust to continue providing religious services with more and greater use, and collaborate in the environment where they are inserted. Several public and private sector initiatives can benefit from better management of this information.
The Catholic Church has for centuries been recognized as a mother and teacher. But studying the Church or means where your temples are is not an easy task. Understanding phenomena such as pilgrimages and visits, under the light of social and human sciences, provides a theoretical basis to assist in making decisions regarding the management of the Sanctuary and the agents involved in religious tourism.
In the case of religious tourism and urban planning, the city of Fatima is an example to be followed in Catholicism and in religions. The Sanctuary of Fatima is also a reference in studies and research, since the founding of SESDI, the researchers count highly qualified professionals for the assistance and support for the development of scientific studies of several areas of knowledge. While the Brazilian Sanctuary has only the Marial Academy, with a strong dedication to theological-Marian studies.
In order to reinvent itself as destinations for religious tourism, it will be necessary to prepare a careful analysis, as well as proposals for measures that are feasible in view of the adversities encountered, respectively, regarding the flow of people. Further research can and should be drawn from this fact, to better follow the economic growth of the region and propose public policies that favor residents, visitors, religious tourists and others.
A logistical study is suggested, thinking of the reorganization of the pilgrimages coming from the dioceses and / or national and international religious movements. This would collaborate to accentuate the displacement of the number of pilgrims for the months of smaller presence in the Sanctuaries. However, some precautions should be taken into account, for example, the local festivals that attract many people to the religious center.
The strategic growth of the region based on the sub-diversification of the type of tourism could be another important measure that will contribute to a stabilization in the number of pilgrims visiting the Sanctuaries. In the Brazilian case we are already talking about the materialization of a religious cluster between the cities of Aparecida, Guaratinguetá and Cachoeira Paulista. It should be noted that, when sub-diversification is indicated, it does not substitute for the main factor that motivates the displacement of a tourist, but adds to the main cause, products and / or services of specific interest to this public.
The Sanctuary of Fatima together with the religious congregations of the region have the physical space and the necessary know-how to better explore spiritual tourism, which can be defined as a form of sub-diversification of religious tourism or even as a complement to it.
Visits or pilgrimages may not be enough to provide the encounter with the Sacred, so spiritual retreats run either by the Sanctuaries or by the religious congregations that surround them could be the supplement for those who could not "detach themselves from the world." It is stressed that measures and investments must be applied in order not to conflict with the focus of tourism in the region and at the same time collaborate to reduce seasonality. Religious tourists also have an interest in local experiences.
These experiences may be before, during or after contact with the Sacred, however, new establishments of gastronomic and / or cultural entertainment, which may arise, should be concerned to know how to share the sacred of the profane, which has been widely debated by Durkheim (1912). The result will possibly generate the filling of the valleys 9 and the attraction of more pilgrims as shown in figure 6.  Figure 6 illustrates the various possibilities of transfer, growth and filling of the valleys that aim to work on the seasonality problem. It is well known that climate change has impacts on every society. In this aspect there is no distinction of creed or nationality, all are affected. It is also known that only 16% of the world's population says they are not affiliated with any religion (Pew Research Center, 2017), so religious leaders play an important role in raising awareness of the effects of environmental degradation. What we want to express is that religions can and should contribute to the current need to care for the environment, since the environment also impacts religion.
For example, the winter period for Europeans is much denser and worrying compared to the diversified Brazilian climate. Catholics (and non-Catholics) who visit the Sanctuary of Fatima face varying temperatures throughout the year and find a real impact on the number of visitors to the Sanctuary. Results such as these were also found earlier, but among Protestants, those studied by Marcum (1999) and Olson (2008) show details of this relationship climate and religion.
Climate change must be a concern of all religions, but this is not the current reality. Sachdeva (2016)

Conclusions
For centuries pilgrimages are present in Christianity, the last census of the The results of the ARDL model confirm the relationship between unemployment and pilgrimages, but show that the impact of unemployment on pilgrimages is low. Causing a positive effect in the short term and negative in the long run.
The impact of international arrivals is highly significant in the short term.
While spending on travel services is significant only in the long run, thus reaffirming that pilgrimages depend on the good economic momentum and the tourism sector.
Another confirmed hypothesis was that climatic factors influence the number of visits to the Sanctuary of Fatima. The variables rainfall volume and mean temperature were statistically significant. Exalting the need for more discussion on environmental issues in the sanctuaries and in the Catholic creed itself.
Seasonality in Marian religious tourism has also been confirmed. This hypothesis was tested in the two Sanctuaries analyzed. The results of the SARIMA model can also benefit those responsible for public services in the Sanctuaries region, because in advance, it will be possible to organize for the periods that the Sanctuaries will receive more or less visitors (or pilgrims in the Fatima case).
The results of this study allow a new look at religious tourism in the Marian context, since it generates empirical results that benefit various agents, from public policy makers, tourism, public service providers (hospitals, firemen, cleaning) and own administration of the Sanctuaries.
New research questions are raised and debated, namely: (i) reinventing is necessary to reduce seasonality and continue to move the local economy -new services that do not conflict with the characteristics of the destination are necessary; (ii) logistic studies that allow the Sanctuaries to be able to indicate to the pilgrims a better period to attend the sacred site; (iii) how religious leaders can inflate their believers to effectively collaborate on environmental and economic issues?; (iv) to expand the studies on the relation of the climate and the participation of the people in catholic cults; and (v) how to clarify the importance of information for religions?
-the benefits that a database can generate for temples and for every local economy.