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Sakhibaksh Assadi, Juma Rasuli, Qiamuddin Andaish A A study on Socio-Economic Status of Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021
A study on Socio-Economic Status of
Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021.
Um estudo sobre o status socioeconômico das mulheres
no Afeganistão - 1998-2021.
Un estudio sobre la situación socioeconómica de las
mujeres en Afganistán - 1998-2021.
Sakhibaksh Assadi1
Juma Rasuli2
Qiamuddin Andaish 3
Enviado: 08 de Agosto de 2024
Aceito em: 10 de Junho de 2025
ABSTRACT
In the period years 1998 to 2021, Afghanistan has witnessed a notable enhan-
cement in the status of women, largely attributable to international nancial
assistance and the implementation of national programs. Signicant progress
has been made in the area of human development, accompanied by a notable
increase in the number of girls pursuing higher education and gaining access
to health services. Additionally, foreign aid and globalization have played a
signicant role in improving the socio-economic conditions of Afghan women.
The main objective of the current study is to investigate women's socio-
economic conditions in Afghanistan. This research employs the autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) modeling approach within the EViews 12 software envi-
ronment to elucidate the pivotal relationships between predictor variables and
the dependent variable. This study posits that economic deprivation, the human
development index, foreign aid, and globalization collectively contribute to the
conditions faced by women. These research ndings reveal that globalization
has a signicant, positive long-term impact on the socioeconomic conditions of
women in Afghanistan. The research uncovers a signicant, positive correlation
between the Human Development Index (HDI) and foreign aid with the GII in
Afghanistan. These ndings raise important questions about the impact of deve-
lopment initiatives and foreign aid on the socioeconomic conditions of women
in Afghanistan.
Key Words: Gender inequality, women’s condition, Auto Regressive Distributed
Lag, Afghanistan
RESUMO
No período de 1998 a 2021, o Afeganistão testemunhou uma melhoria notável
na condição das mulheres, em grande parte atribuível à assistência nanceira
internacional e à implementação de programas nacionais. Houve progresso sig-
nicativo na área do desenvolvimento humano, acompanhado por um aumento
1. Assistant Professor in the Department
of Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty
of Economics, Baghlan University.
E-mail: sakhibaksh.assadi@gmail.com
2. Visiting Professor in the International
Relations Department, NEPDA at UEPB,
CAPES. Former Assistant Professor
in the Economics Faculty at Bamyan
University, Afghanistan. Email: rasuli.
juma@visitante.uepb.edu.br
3. Faculty of Economics, Baghlan
University, Afghanistan, and PhD
Scholar, Department of Economics,
Veer Narmad South Gujarat University.
E-mail: qiam.andaish@gmail.com
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notável no número de meninas que buscam educação superior e têm acesso a
serviços de saúde. Além disso, a ajuda externa e a globalização desempenharam
um papel signicativo na melhoria das condições socioeconômicas das mulheres
afegãs. O principal objetivo do presente estudo é investigar as condições socio-
econômicas das mulheres no Afeganistão. Esta pesquisa emprega a abordagem
de modelagem autorregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ARDL) dentro do
ambiente de software EViews 12 para elucidar as relações centrais entre as
variáveis preditoras e a variável dependente. Este estudo postula que a privação
econômica, o índice de desenvolvimento humano, a ajuda externa e a globaliza-
ção contribuem coletivamente para as condições enfrentadas pelas mulheres. Os
resultados desta pesquisa revelam que a globalização tem um impacto signi-
cativo e positivo a longo prazo nas condições socioeconômicas das mulheres
no Afeganistão. A pesquisa revela uma correlação positiva signicativa entre o
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) e a ajuda externa com o Índice de
Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) no Afeganistão. Essas descobertas levantam
questões importantes sobre o impacto das iniciativas de desenvolvimento e da
ajuda externa nas condições socioeconômicas das mulheres no Afeganistão.
Palavras-chave: Desigualdade de gênero, condição das mulheres, Atraso Distri-
buído Auto Regressivo, Afeganistão
RESUMEN
No período de 1998 a 2021, o Afeganistão testemunhou uma melhoria notável
na condição das mulheres, em grande parte atribuível à assistência nanceira
internacional e à implementação de programas nacionais. Houve progresso sig-
nicativo na área do desenvolvimento humano, acompanhado por um aumento
notável no número de meninas que buscam educação superior e têm acesso a
serviços de saúde. Além disso, a ajuda externa e a globalização desempenharam
um papel signicativo na melhoria das condições socioeconômicas das mulheres
afegãs. O principal objetivo do presente estudo é investigar as condições socio-
econômicas das mulheres no Afeganistão. Esta pesquisa emprega a abordagem
de modelagem autorregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ARDL) dentro do
ambiente de software EViews 12 para elucidar as relações centrais entre as
variáveis preditoras e a variável dependente. Este estudo postula que a privação
econômica, o índice de desenvolvimento humano, a ajuda externa e a globaliza-
ção contribuem coletivamente para as condições enfrentadas pelas mulheres. Os
resultados desta pesquisa revelam que a globalização tem um impacto signi-
cativo e positivo a longo prazo nas condições socioeconômicas das mulheres
no Afeganistão. A pesquisa revela uma correlação positiva signicativa entre o
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) e a ajuda externa com o Índice de
Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) no Afeganistão. Essas descobertas levantam
questões importantes sobre o impacto das iniciativas de desenvolvimento e da
ajuda externa nas condições socioeconômicas das mulheres no Afeganistão.
Palabras clave: Desigualdad de género, Condición de la mujer, Atraso Distribui-
do Autorregresivo, Afganistán
1 INTRODUCTION
The socio-economic conditions of women in Afghanistan have
changed signicantly over the past 23 years, with both progress and de-
cline. It should be noted that the situation is complex and inuenced by
a range of factors, including modications in political ideology, security
challenges, gender inequalities, education systems, economic dispari-
ties, health issues, unemployment, aspects of globalization, and cultural
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Sakhibaksh Assadi, Juma Rasuli, Qiamuddin Andaish A A study on Socio-Economic Status of Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021
norms. Gender equality can be achieved through equal rights, opportu-
nities, access to education and healthcare, decent work, and political and
economic privileges that should be available to both men and women
(Duo et al., 2005)
Afghanistan is currently experiencing one of the worst and lar-
gest humanitarian disruptions in the world, and over 50% of the popu-
lation relies on humanitarian support for survival. In poor countries like
Afghanistan, the main problem against women is the overall social, ins-
titutional setting and cultural practices such as traditions, laws, norms,
limited policies, and codes of conduct (world Bank, 2001)The Secretary-
General of the United Nations, Ko Annan, has claimed that achieving
gender equality is a “prerequisite” for achieving the other Millennium
Development Goals, including poverty eradication, reducing child mor-
tality, achieving universal education, and ending gender disparity in edu-
cation by the target year of 2015 (United Nation, 2005) Moreover, across
the country, over 18.9 million people are at a critical or higher level of
emergency food insecurity. Predictions are that access to food will de-
teriorate as a result of worsening economic eects, climate change, and
global security challenges (CARE, 2022)
Gender equality and the empowerment of women have been es-
tablished as important dimensions in Afghanistan’s development frame-
work and internationally in the 2030 SDG Agenda. Gender inequality in
educational attainment also aects the HDI and its impact on the health
component. Educated girls tend to have healthy children and family-re-
lated family members. According to the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), governments should take urgent action to address the root causes
that have led to discrimination and women’s participation in the priva-
te and public sectors, including by transforming their role Such actions
include reforming legal frameworks and adopting laws that promote
equal opportunities for women and men(United Nation, 2017a)SDG 5
highlights the signicance of attaining gender equality and empowering
women, not only due to its fundamental human rights nature but also
because it serves as a catalyst and also because of its implications for all
other areas of development (UNITED NATION, 2021).
According to (MDGs, access to education and job opportunities has
close relations and aects women’s economic empowerment (Echavez
et.al, 2014). Since 2001, the Afghan government, in cooperation with in-
ternational organizations, has invested signicant resources to ensure
that women become leaders in politics, business, and civil society (Nijat
& Murtazashvili, 2015). The Bonn Conference agreement and the 2004
Afghanistan constitution emphasized equal rights for women and their
participation in government. The elaboration and establishment of a pro-
grammatic framework for women’s rights and gender equality clauses in
constitutions through careful interpretation and consultation with inte-
rested parties and actors (Mohammad Hashim Kamali, 2008)
Gender inequality in the context of human development is still one
of the most important issues in most societies, particularly in Afghanistan,
where women experience much discrimination and obstacles. Knowing
the condition of women and deep-diving into various aspects of this
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concept is crucial for societies such as those in Afghanistan. The socio-e-
conomic status of Afghan women reects their access to education, jobs,
income, healthcare, and decision-making. It is shaped by structural, cul-
tural, and political factors, with key indicators like literacy, employment,
income, and asset ownership. Conict, poverty, gender norms, and insta-
bility heavily impact these conditions, requiring a comprehensive analy-
sis to understand their eects on women’s lives.
In 2021, when the Taliban gained control of the country, concerns
were raised about the potential reversal of progress in women’s develop-
ment. During their previous rule from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban imposed
severe restrictions on women’s fundamental rights, impacting access to
education and healthcare. The current policies also continue to limit wo-
men’s access to education beyond the 6th grade, higher education, and
employment. In other nations, plenty of studies are related to this issue,
but there is a scarcity in Afghanistan. Given the above compelling rea-
sons, researchers intend to assess the socioeconomic conditions of wo-
men in Afghanistan. The main objective of the current study is to inves-
tigate women’s socioeconomic conditions in Afghanistan. According to
the gender and development theory, examine how structural inequali-
ties in Afghanistan restricted women’s agency across the last regimes,
and to obtain this objective, the authors selected the Gender Inequality
Index GII as the dependent variable and economic deprivation, Human
Development Index, foreign aid, and Globalization as independent varia-
bles, utilizing the ARDL model.
Our hypothesis in this study is that developed independent varia-
bles like economic deprivation, the human development index, foreign
aid, and globalization contribute to women’s conditions in related de-
pendent variables like employment, access to education, health services,
social status, and fundamental rights. Based on intersectionality approa-
ches, this study adopts an intersectional lens to reveal how multiple iden-
tities shaped women’s unequal access to education and employment.
According to HDI theory, the erosion of women’s educational and health
rights under the Taliban severely curtailed their development potential in
Afghanistan. Based on postcolonial feminist theory, the research resists
homogenizing Afghan women’s experiences and highlights context-spe-
cic forms of resilience. The results will provide empirical support by
highlighting which selected indicators have the most signicant impact
on Afghanistan’s women’s condition. Policymakers can make well-infor-
med judgements about how best to allocate resources and formulate po-
licies that will enhance women’s condition with the help of this evidence.
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
Afghanistan is currently experiencing an accumulation of crises,
including economic, humanitarian, climate-related, and political challen-
ges. These crises are interrelated and further exacerbated by the growing
crisis of women’s rights. And it has been struggling with the issues of
gender inequality and women’s fundamental rights. Though, between
2013 and 2016, the proportion of women in the Afghanistan judiciary
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Sakhibaksh Assadi, Juma Rasuli, Qiamuddin Andaish A A study on Socio-Economic Status of Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021
increased from 8.4 percent to 11 percent, with women presiding over lo-
wer courts and adjudicating juvenile and family cases, as well as cases of
violence against women and girls(Schwab et al., 2019)The status of wo-
men has been uctuating over time, with improvements in some areas in
the last 20 years, but also setbacks within the recent three years, as recent
survey, nearly 16 million Afghans are aected by poverty, increased in
fertility has a deleterious impact on the welfare of households, as eviden-
ced by signicantly elevated poverty rates among larger households and
those with more children. Conversely, educational attainment and litera-
cy, and unemployment have a deleterious impact on the household. The
correlation between employment and higher levels of poverty indicates
that employment is not a guarantee of protection from poverty (Central
Statistics Organization, 2018)
In 2020, Care, an international organization, surveyed 320 indi-
viduals in Afghanistan. The ndings revealed that 67% of women are
unable to access health services without the accompaniment of a male
relative, and 73% of women reported a lack of knowledge regarding fa-
mily planning, and 87% of women had experienced some form of gender-
-based violence. Additionally, 55% of women indicated that they would
prioritize cash to make up for income losses, and only 8% of women have
received social assistance (CARE, 2020)
A study conducted by the World Bank and the International Finance
Corporation in 2008 revealed that women’s participation in business, the
proportion of female top managers, the number of permanent full-ti-
me workers who were female in Afghanistan were signicantly lower
than the average South Asia, regional and global (Echavez et al., 2014).
Amānullāh Khan, former King of Afghanistan, has considered a series
of reforms at the administrative, economic, and social levels to enhan-
ce women’s rights. He established new educational institutions for both
girls and boys, prohibited forced marriages, and publicly denounced poly-
gamy and mandatory dress codes. Queen Soraya removed her veil and
established the inaugural women’s journal in Afghanistan, advocating
for gender equality. By the early 1990s, it was estimated that nearly 70%
of school teachers, 50% of government workers and university students,
and 40% of doctors in Kabul were women (Gabija Leclerc and Rosamund
Shreeves, 2023).
According the UNDP Report 2021 related to gender inequality, re-
vealed that maternal mortality rate in Afghanistan was 638 per 100000
live births in 2017, the adolescent birth rate is 82.6 as per 1000 women
ages (15-19) in 2021, population with least some secondary education is 6.4
female, and 14.9 for male ages 25 and older, and labor participation rate
is 14.8 for female and 66.5% for male ages 15 and older in 2021 (UNDP,
2023). According to the gure related to the gender development index,
Afghanistan is in group 5 by absolute deviation from gender parity in
HDI values 0.678, the data was collected in the recent year 2021 and clea-
red some socio-economic aspects developed on SDG dimensions of gen-
der development in Afghanistan(UNDP, 2023), the Human Development
Report in 2021, elucidated the gender inequalities between Afghanistan
and neighboring countries, Afghanistan has the highest gender disparity
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with a GII value of 0.655, and after that Pakistan, Iran, and China also
have the lowest gender disparities among neighboring countries(United
Nation, 2021)
(Kathleen, et.al., 2012). They have done a review of title lessons
from women’s programs in Afghanistan and Iraq that revealed that in
the economic sphere, women in Afghanistan should not be limited to the
lowest-paying jobs.
The research ndings indicate that Afghan women encounter
obstacles in reaching out beyond urban elites to non-elite women, es-
pecially those women who are in provinces and remote areas. The in-
uence of culture and religion has been observed to impede the ad-
vancement of women’s education, economic autonomy, and political
participation. It was revealed that women in both countries confronted
signicant barriers to education and awareness of their rights (Ashraf
& Ali, 2018). The research found a positive and signicant relationship
between women’s status and the human development index. It showed
that a 1% increase in human development causes a 0.586% decrease in
gender inequality (Jütting et al., 2008). Also found similar results; ho-
wever, economic deprivation has a negative and signicant impact on
women’s status in the context of Pakistan. The ndings indicate that
as the level of education increases, the overall status of women also
increases. The results show that a 1% increase in secondary school en-
rollment changes the status of women by 0.22%. This is supported by
(Malik & Courtney, 2011) and (Faridi Mohammad Zahir, et. al,2009)
who argue that higher enrollment in secondary and higher education
improves the status of women in society.
On December 24, 2022, the Ministry of Economy enacted a prohi-
bition on Afghan women working for national and international NGOs
in Afghanistan. This ban on women NGO workers has a direct impact
on the more than 15,000 women employed in Afghanistan across 183 na-
tional and international NGOs (Michelle Gehrig and Caitlin Williscrof,
2024) the same (Van Bijler Martine, 2021) In August 2020, was conducted
a qualitative survey with a coalition of 400 Afghan women and activists
under the name “Our Voice, Our Future.” As a result of this interview,
two open letters were sent to “Women World Leaders.” These letters cal-
led on the recipients to support the ongoing ght to secure the rights of
Afghan women and their children. Additionally, the letters were addres-
sed to the Taliban leadership, using the phrase “Our Voice, Our Future
(Lerch et al., 2022) found that in the majority of domains, female partici-
pation is observed to be lower in countries with established links to illibe-
ral international organizations, particularly in recent times.
Rasmane Ouedraogo (2018) and Elodie Marlet (2018), observed a
correlation between foreign direct investments and two indices: The
Gender Development Index (GDI) and the Gender Inequality Index
(GII). These indices are used to measure gender development and gen-
der inequality in developing countries. The evidence suggests that high
levels of FDI inows per capita are associated with higher values of gen-
der development indices and with lower values of gender inequality in-
dices over the period 1990–2015. Furthermore, the relationship between
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Sakhibaksh Assadi, Juma Rasuli, Qiamuddin Andaish A A study on Socio-Economic Status of Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021
FDI inows per capita and GDI appears to be more pronounced in mi-
ddle-income countries, while the relationship with GII is more pronou-
nced in low-income countries. And found that the evidence suggests
that there is a positive association between FDI and female entrepre-
neurship. Furthermore, the association between female entrepreneur-
ship and industry FDI is on average statistically insignicant, indicating
that intra-industry FDI crowding-out eects do not appear to apply in
the case of female entrepreneurship, and in Afghanistan, there are just
2.42% female managers in 2018.
Gender inequality remains a global issue, which results in the fun-
damental denial of basic rights and opportunities for women and girls.
Achieving gender equality and promoting the empowerment of women
and girls necessitates further advocacy to challenge widely entrenched
gender-based discrimination rooted in patriarchal attitudes and societal
norms (United Nation, 2017b) Since 1947, the United States has been hos-
ting the world’s most important intergovernmental commission dedica-
ted exclusively to the promotion of gender equality and the empower-
ment of women. It creates proposals to the Economic and Social Council
on advancing women’s rights in political, economic, social, and educa-
tional domains (Castillejos-Aragón, 2021). The labor market presents a
number of challenges for women. They are less likely to be employed,
they earn less than men in similar roles, and they are more likely to be
in poverty even when they are working. Furthermore, women spend al-
most twice as much time on housework, almost ve times as much time
on childcare, and about half as much time on market activities as men do
(Esther Duo, 2012)
The results indicate that the relative participation of women in
the economically active labor force tends to increase with the level of
globalization. The positive interaction term between gender and glo-
balization in (b = 4.25, p < .01) corroborates the hypothesis that wo-
men’s likelihood of engaging in paid work, in comparison to men, is
positively correlated with globalization(Roll et al., 2024) and (Akhter
& Ward, 2009) and (Ben-Nun Bloom et al., 2017)had studied related
to globalization and gender equality, the results demonstrate that the
global economy exerts disparate inuences on gender empowerment,
and The process of economic globalization has the eect of enhancing
gender equality (Potrafke & Ursprung, 2012)In their research, they dis-
covered that economic and social globalization exert a decidedly posi-
tive inuence on social institutions that reduce female subjugation and
promote gender equality. (Richards & Gelleny, 2007) discovered that
the relationship between economic globalization and women’s status
is contingent upon the specic type and era under examination. In the
majority of cases, economic globalization is associated with an impro-
vement in women’s status.
Meyer (2003), investigates the impact of economic globalization on
work-related gender dierences and inequalities. The results of this study
illustrate that economic globalization reduces occupational gender dis-
crimination and inequality. Moreover, trade liberalization increases job
opportunities for both men and women, which reduces gender inequality.
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(Moghadam, 1999) analyzes the impact of globalisation on women’s labor
force participation and women’s mobilization. The results of the study
show that globalizations contribute to women’s empowerment.
Duo (2011) has revealed that a mutual relationship between eco-
nomic development and women’s empowerment is dened as the im-
provement of women’s ability to access the elements of development,
including health, education, income, rights, and political participation.
It was further recommended by the researchers that policymakers fo-
cus their attention relationship. In the 2019 Asia Foundation report
on perceived gender challenges, it was noted that women faced grea-
ter obstacles than men in various areas, including access to education,
access to rights/participation, violence, and economic crisis (Clara
Albrecht et.al 2022).
3 RESEARCH DATA AND METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction of the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model
In this study, the authors examine the methodology of the United
Nations Development Program (UNDP) gender inequality index. econo-
mic deprivation, Globalization, human development index, and Foreign
aid have some selected explanatory variables in Afghanistan using the
ARDL econometric model. The ARDL model is commonly used for Log
analysis (Pesaran and Smith, 1995). According to the theoretical founda-
tions and experimental studies conducted, and also quoted from (Pesaran
et al., 2001). The ARDL model is described as follows:
After conrming the existence of a long-term relationship between
the variables, a model with a conditional autoregressive distribution in-
terval can be performed, which can be used to estimate the long-term
coecient in the model.
This research is a long-term relationship after conrmation as
follows:
In the above relation
The dependent variable:
GII: Gender Inequality Index.
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Sakhibaksh Assadi, Juma Rasuli, Qiamuddin Andaish A A study on Socio-Economic Status of Women in Afghanistan- 1998 -2021
Independent variables:
ECDt: = Economic Deprivation.
GLOt: Globalization.
HDIt: Human Development Index.
ODAt: Foreign aid. The index t represents time.
3.2 Gender Inequality Index
The Gender Inequality Index (GII) is a measure introduced by
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in its Human
Development Report. It reects gender-based inequalities in three di-
mensions: reproductive health, empowerment, and economic activity.
Each dimension is measured using sub-indicators such as life expectancy,
mortality ratio, secondary education enrolment, and labour market par-
ticipation. The Gender Inequality Index (GII) and its related dimensions
are considered dependent variables. The Gender Inequality Index (GII) is
calculated by combining three dimensions to produce a composite index
that ranges from 0 (perfect gender equality) to 1 (maximum inequality).
The GII value decreases as the level of gender inequality decreases.
3.3 Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) and Gender Inequality Index
(GII) are frequently examined in combination to understand the relationship
between overall human development and gender inequality. The HDI asses-
ses a country’s average achievements in three fundamental dimensions of
human development: health (measured by life expectancy at birth), educa-
tion (measured by mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling),
and standard of living (measured by GNI per capita). Socioeconomic factors,
such as income levels, can also inuence gender inequalities as addressed
by the Human Development Index (HDI). Policies that focus on economic
development may help to reduce gender gaps in income and employment
opportunities. And improving access to education and health has a signi-
cant relation with the household economy and social lives.
3.4 Economic Deprivation
In Afghanistan, economic deprivation is aecting women, who
have limited access to income-generating projects, experiencing conict,
displacement, and restrictions. Here, Economic Deprivation is an inde-
pendent variable, and GII is a dependent variable. Examining the rela-
tionship between economic deprivation and gender inequality can provi-
de valuable insights into the factors that inuence gender disparities and
inform strategies for promoting gender equality. This index was introdu-
ced by Arthur Okun in 1960. He constructed the Misery Index by adding
the annual rate of ination and adjusted rate of unemployment, which
are used to analyze the economic well-being of any country.
3.5 MI = Inf + Une
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In the above questions, MI represents the misery index, INF is the
Ination rate, and Un shows the Unemployment rate.
3.6 Foreign Aid
Afghanistan is nancially dependent on other countries to fund
the projects to support the socio-economic conditions of women in the
country. Examining the correlation between foreign aid and the Gender
Inequality Index (GII) as a dependent variable could be fruitful for this re-
search. This analysis can provide valuable insights into the eectiveness
of aid in promoting gender equality.
3.7 Globalization
Globalization before 2021 brought exposure to global norms for
Afghan women on related gender equality, creating opportunities to hire
in NGOs, supporting women entrepreneurs, funding projects to work
with media, and supporting socially and politically. Analyzing the rela-
tionship between globalization and the Gender Inequality Index (GII) re-
quires exploring how the degree of globalization in a country or region
is associated with gender disparities. The relationship between globaliza-
tion and gender inequality is complex, and ndings may vary based on
the specic indicators used and the unique characteristics of the countries
or regions under study.
4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 presents a summary of descriptive statistics on the variables used in
EViews 12 software
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics
Variables LGII LECD LGIO LHDI LODA
Mean 0.502077 2.872655 3.471504 0.368773 4.414635
Median 0.530031 2.948747 3.544347 0.382189 4.724056
Maximum 0.562469 3.521311 3.656211 0.412772 5.411563
Minimum 0.359072 2.192823 3.164795 0.294906 1.878739
St.Dev. 0.077380 0.325162 0.184658 0.041185 1.076518
Skewness -0.219474 -0.406500 -0.630326 -0.619607 -1.469048
Kurtosis 1.779604 2.807137 1.763687 1.960971 3.880241
Jarque-Bera 5.997041 0.698167 3.117716 2.615236 9.407233
Probability 0.249861 0.705334 0.210376 0.270464 0.209062
Sum 12.04986 68.94373 83.31609 8.850551 105.9512
Sum Sq.Dev. 0.137715 2.431802 0.784263 0.039012 26.65451
Observation 24 24 24 24 24
Source: Authors’ calculation
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The provided data in Table 1 indicates that the gender inequality in-
dex (GII) has a mean of 0.502 and a standard deviation of 0.077. Economic
deprivation (ECD) is reported to have an average of 2.87 with a standard
deviation of 0.32, and the globalization variable (GIO) has an average of
3.47 with a standard deviation of 0.184. In the research model, the mean
for the Human Development Index (HDI) is 0.368 with a standard devia-
tion of -0.619. Furthermore, the mean for the foreign aid (ODA) is stated
to be 4.414 with a standard deviation of 1.076. The research also notes
that the elasticity, skewness, and probability statistics of the Jarek test are
within normal ranges for all variables in the study.
4.2 Unit Root Tests
The Dick-Fuller unit root test and the Phillips and Peron test are
the most important tests for examining the stability of time series data.
Table 2: Unit Root Tests
At level
Variable Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Phillips Perron (PP)
LGII -3.507** -1.951
LECD -2.963* -2.983*
LGLO -2.348 -1.224
LHDI -2.327 -2.336
LODA -2.963* -2.983*
At 1st dierence
LGII -3.148** -3.148**
L LECD -5.630*** -8.266***
LGLO -3.132** -3.062**
LHDI -3.385** -2.520*
LODA -5.630*** -8.266***
Source: Authors’ calculation
The results of the unit root test are presented in Table 2, utilizing the
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron Piron PP methods. The analy-
sis indicates that the Gender Inequality Index, as the dependent variable,
rejects the unit root hypothesis according to the Dickey-Fuller method,
while accepting it based on Phillips-Perron, implying that this variable is
stationary I(0). Upon examination of the independent variables, both eco-
nomic deprivation and foreign aid reject the unit root hypothesis at a 90%
condence level using both methods, suggesting their stationarity I(0).
Conversely, globalization and the human development index accept the
unit root hypothesis, utilizing both tests, implying that these variables
are nonstationary and possess a unit root. Subsequently, after dieren-
cing, these two variables reject the unit root hypothesis at the 90% con-
dence level, indicating their stationarity I (1). Consequently, based on
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these ndings, we can conclude that all variables are either I (0) or I (1), al-
lowing for the accurate use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)
model for estimation. In summary, the comprehensive examination of
the unit root tests using the Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP)
methods is crucial for determining the stationarity of variables, which is
essential for precise modeling and forecasting purposes.
4.3 Represents the results of the ARDL bounds testing technique.
Table 3: Bound testing
ARDL Bound testing approach
Dependent Variable GII ARDL (3.3.3.3.2)
F-Statistics: 4.0078 Critical values
0.10 0.5 0.01
I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1)
2.2 3.09 2.56 3.49 3.29 4.37
Source: Authors’ calculation
The null hypothesis has been rejected, revealing a co-integration
pattern or long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables of
gender inequality index (GII), economic deprivation (ECD), foreign aid
(ODA), human development index (HDI), and globalization (GIO). This
conclusion is supported by the F-statistic test, which indicates that the
calculated value surpasses the upper limit at both the 5% and 10% signi-
cance levels.
Table 4: Long–Run Relationships
ARDL Long Run Results ARDL (3.3.3.3.2)
Dependent Variable LGII Period 1998- 2021
Variable Co-ecient Standard-error T-statistics(prob)
LECD 0.012377 0.004764 2.60021(0.0115)
LGLO -1.345540 0.175407 -7.670975(0.0166)
LHDI 4.770794 0.470963 10.12986(0.0096)
LODA 0.088659 0.007793 11.37653(0.0076)
C 0.020728 0.423438 7.133818(0.0191)
Source: Authors’ calculation,
The ndings in Table 4 demonstrate that all variables signicantly
impact the Gender Inequality Index (GII) over the long term. However,
the interpretation of the estimation coecients and their impact on the
dependent variable varies. The estimation results indicate that globali-
zation (GLO) is negatively and signicantly correlated with gender ine-
quality. This means that a 1% increase in globalization leads to a (1.345)
decrease in gender inequality, suggesting that globalization has a positive
eect on improving conditions for women in Afghanistan. Conversely,
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economic deprivation has a positive and signicant association with the
gender inequality index. This implies that a 1% increase in economic
deprivation leads to a 0.0048% increase in the gender inequality index,
indicating that economic deprivation worsens the situation for women
in Afghanistan. It is evident that as economic deprivation increases, wo-
men’s participation in the labour market decreases.
The relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI)
and the Gender Inequality Index (GII), as well as the connection between
Ocial Development Assistance (ODA) and GII, both demonstrate posi-
tive and signicant correlations. This means that a 1% increase in HDI
results in a 4.77% increase in GII, and similarly, a 1% increase in ODA
leads to a 0.088% increase in GII. These ndings indicate that as HDI and
ODA increase, gender inequality, as measured by the GII, also increases,
signaling a lack of improvement in the status of women. These results
were unexpected and contradicted general assumptions. However, it may
be attributed to the systematic discrimination against Afghan women
that is deeply rooted in the cultural and societal norms of the Afghan
community. Additionally, the current regime and existing conditions in
Afghanistan provide additional support for our ndings and assertions.
4.4 Assessing the Short-Term Gender Inequality
Once a long-term relationship has been identied, the next crucial
step is to calculate the error correction equation. This involves incorpora-
ting a time-lagged regression error term with other explanatory variables
and utilizing the least squares method to determine the error correction
coecient. This coecient signies the pace at which adjustments move
towards the long-term equilibrium. Essentially, it quanties the degree
to which any disparities from the long-term relationship in the previous
period are being rectied in the current period. A positive coecient sig-
nies divergence, while a negative coecient implies convergence.
4.5 Commentary on the Error Correction Model
Table 5: Error Correction Model.
Variables Coecient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob
D(LGII(-1)) -0.213887 0.033252 -6.432235 0.0233
D(LGII(-2)) -0.264678 0.023819 -11.11217 0.0080
D(LECD) -0.006371 0.001566 -4.067737 0.0555
D(LECD(-1) 0.006460 0.001347 4.794786 0.0409
D(LECD(-2) 0.003331 0.001303 2.556809 0.1249
D(LGIO) -0.023376 0.030062 -0.777567 0.5182
D(LGIO(-1) 0.661975 0.027757 23.84850 0.0018
D(LGIO(-2) 0.387509 0.023132 16.75182 0.0035
D(LHDI) 0.173894 0.077062 2.256567 0.1527
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Variables Coecient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob
D(LHDI(-1) -1.511916 0.186307 -8.115170 0.0148
D(LHDI(-2) -1.896854 0.156542 -12.11719 0.0067
D(LODA) 0.008675 0.001826 -4.752363 0.0415
D(LODA(-1) -0.085700 0.004094 -20.93267 0.0023
CointEq(-1)* -0.865718 0.023860 -36.28343 0.0008
Prob(F-statistic) = 0.0002 R2 = 0.91 R2 = 0.90 DW = 1. 87
Source: Authors’ calculation
Upon analysing the data presented in Table 4, it is evident that the
variables being studied have a signicant impact on Afghanistan’s Gender
Inequality Index (GII) in the short term. The GII variable exhibits two
intervals with a substantial negative impact, while the ECD variable de-
monstrates two intervals with a positive and signicant impact. Similarly,
the Globalization variable shows two intervals with a positive and sig-
nicant eect. The HDI variable displays two intervals with a negative
and signicant impact, and the ODA variable indicates one interval with
a negative and signicant eect. These ndings underscore the critical
impact of economic deprivation, globalization, the human development
index, and foreign aid on Afghanistan’s GII in the short term.
For a more comprehensive understanding of the data, it is essential
to examine the estimated coecients. Notably, the CointEq coecient
(-1) emerges as the most signicant coecient in the short term, illustra-
ting the speed at which the short-term equilibrium moves towards the
long-term equilibrium. The results from Table 4 show that the estima-
ted coecient (-1) of CointEq in the model equates to -0.86, indicating a
primarily negative and statistically signicant value. This suggests that
the short-term model is imbalanced, with an error that is corrected by
approximately 86% in each period. Therefore, due consideration must be
given to the CointEq coecient when analysing the impact of the varia-
bles studied on Afghanistan’s GII in the short term.
4.6 Represent the results of classical tests.
Table 6: Classical tests
Null-Hypothesis F-- Statistics P- value
LM Test: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation 0.446 0.103
Heteroscedasticity Test: Breusch Pagan- Godfrey 0.563 0.540
The normality of waste 0.907 0.635
Source: Authors’ calculation
In Table 6, an analysis of the model’s performance in relation
to heterogeneity variance and autocorrelation is presented. The n-
dings demonstrate that the model is not aected by either of these is-
sues. Specically, the test for heterogeneity variance indicates that the
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calculated F statistic is lower than the F table, supporting the acceptance
of the null hypothesis based on homogeneity of variance. This suggests
that the variance of the dependent variable remains consistent across dif-
ferent levels of the independent variable.
Furthermore, the non-autocorrelation test reveals a probability ex-
ceeding 0.005, arming the null hypothesis based on non-autocorrela-
tion. This suggests that the residuals are not correlated over time, which
is a desirable characteristic for a model. Additionally, the normality test
for residuals, based on the Jarque-Bera probability statistic, indicates that
the residuals are normally distributed. This indicates that the errors are
randomly distributed around the true values, a crucial assumption for
valid statistical inference. Collectively, these ndings underscore the mo-
del’s reliability and validity, conrming that its results can be interpreted
with precision.
5 CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
The current study’s central and main objective is to assess women’s
socio-economic conditions in Afghanistan from 1998 to 2021. To inves-
tigate this, the researchers selected the Gender Inequality Index as the
dependent variable and the Human Development Index, Globalization,
Economic Deprivation, and Foreign Aid as independent variables, utili-
zing the ARDL model.
Our research ndings reveal that globalization has a signicant,
positive long-term impact on the socioeconomic conditions of women
in Afghanistan. Specically, our analysis demonstrates that a 1% increa-
se in globalization is associated with a 1.345% decrease in the Gender
Inequality Index (GII), indicating a clear enhancement in women’s so-
cioeconomic status. This suggests that increased global integration
has the potential to improve the well-being of women in Afghanistan.
Additionally, our study highlights the adverse eect of economic depri-
vation on gender inequality. We found that a 1% increase in economic
deprivation in Afghanistan resulted in a 0.0048% increase in GII, signa-
ling a detrimental impact on women’s socioeconomic conditions. This
emphasizes the urgency of addressing economic disparities to uplift the
status of women in the country.
Furthermore, our research uncovers a signicant, positive corre-
lation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and foreign aid
with the GII in Afghanistan. This implies that both HDI and foreign aid
contribute to increased gender inequality in the Afghanistan context.
Specically, we observed that a 1% increase in HDI led to a 4.77% in-
crease in GII, while a 1% rise in Ocial Development Assistance (ODA)
resulted in a 0.089% increase in GII. These ndings raise important ques-
tions about the impact of development initiatives and foreign aid on the
socioeconomic conditions of women in Afghanistan. In conclusion, our
ndings highlight the need for further research to understand the un-
derlying mechanisms driving these observed trends. This understanding
is crucial for developing targeted interventions to enhance the socioeco-
nomic well-being of women in Afghanistan.
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Based on the study’s results, the authors propose the following re-
commendations for policymakers and the government of Afghanistan.
The study indicates that globalization has had a positive and substantial
impact on the socio-economic status of women. To further promote this,
it is essential to support trade liberalization, international cooperation,
education and skills development, foreign direct investment, and tech-
nology and innovation. Additionally, the government should address
economic deprivation by implementing poverty reduction programs, es-
pecially designed for women, such as providing micronance and entre-
preneurship support, and creating job opportunities for women.
The policymakers and government need to review the human de-
velopment strategies in Afghanistan. The current strategy may not ade-
quately address gender inequality. It is crucial to identify gaps and areas
where policies may unintentionally perpetuate gender inequality and
ensure that human development policies are gender-sensitive. Specic ef-
forts should be made to empower women through healthcare, education,
and social services. Additionally, foreign aid should be targeted eecti-
vely towards projects that directly support women and indicate the main
reason for gender inequality. Furthermore, it needs to work on streng-
thening institutional frameworks to better support and protect women’s
rights and promote gender equality.
To foster the advancement of women’s socio-economic conditions
in Afghanistan, policymakers and the government can create a more su-
pportive environment by implementing these recommendations. This
will contribute to achieving greater gender equality and sustainable de-
velopment in the country.
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