Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

Effects of religious heterogeneity on global

beef trade

Efeitos da heterogeneidade religiosa no comércio global

de carne bovina

Efectos de la heterogeneidad religiosa en el comercio

mundial de carne de vacuno

1

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins

DOI: 10.5752/P.2317-773X.2025v13.n2.p9

Enviado: 06 de abril de 2025

Aceito em: 30 de setembro de 2025

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates the eﬀect of religious distance on bilateral beef trade ﬂows

between 21 exporting countries and 167 importing countries from 2000 to 2021.

The analysis examines both facilitating and hindering eﬀects of religious factors

on commercial ﬂows. Religious similarity may reduce transaction costs through

shared norms and trust networks, while religious diﬀerences may create exclu-

sionary practices functioning as trade barriers. Using a structural gravity model,

the results show that religious asymmetry does not impact overall beef trade

ﬂows, except when controlling for major Halal and Kosher-certiﬁed exporters.

The ﬁndings reveal that religion does not systematically aﬀect beef trade, thou-

gh certiﬁcation creates competitive advantages in specialized market segments.

Key words: Religion; Beef; International Trade; Cultural Barriers; Gravity

Model.

RESUMO

Este estudo avalia o efeito da distância religiosa nos ﬂuxos de comércio bilateral de

carne bovina entre 21 países exportadores e 167 países importadores de 2000 a 2021. A

análise examina tanto os potenciais efeitos facilitadores quanto restritivos dos fatores

religiosos nos ﬂuxos comerciais. A similaridade religiosa pode reduzir custos de tran-

sação por meio de normas compartilhadas e redes de conﬁança, enquanto diferenças

religiosas podem criar práticas excludentes que funcionam como barreiras comerciais.

Utilizando um modelo gravitacional estrutural, os resultados mostram que a assime-

tria religiosa não afeta os ﬂuxos comerciais gerais de carne bovina, exceto quando

controlados os principais exportadores certiﬁcados Halal e Kosher. Os achados reve-

lam que a religião não afeta sistematicamente o comércio de carne bovina, embora a

certiﬁcação crie vantagens competitivas em segmentos especializados globalmente.

Palavras-chave: Religião; Carne bovina; Comércio internacional; Barreiras

culturais; Modelo gravitacional.

1. Doutora em Economia Aplicada, Universidade de São Paulo e professora no Departamento de Economia,

Universidade Federal de Viçosa.

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estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

RESUMEN

El estudio evalúa el efecto de la distancia religiosa en los ﬂujos de comercio

bilateral de carne de vacuno entre 21 países exportadores y 167 países importa-

dores de 2000 a 2021. El análisis examina tanto los potenciales efectos facilita-

dores como restrictivos de los factores religiosos en los ﬂujos comerciales. La

similitud religiosa puede reducir los costos de transacción a través de normas

compartidas y redes de conﬁanza, mientras que las diferencias religiosas pueden

crear prácticas excluyentes que funcionan como barreras comerciales. Utilizan-

do un modelo gravitacional estructural, los resultados muestran que la asimetría

religiosa no afecta los ﬂujos comerciales generales de carne de vacuno, excepto

cuando se controlan los principales exportadores certiﬁcados Halal y Kosher.

Los hallazgos revelan que la religión no afecta sistemáticamente el comercio de

carne de vacuno, aunque la certiﬁcación crea ventajas competitivas en segmen-

tos especializados globalmente.

Palabras clave: Religión; Carne de vacuno; Comercio internacional; Barreras

culturales; Modelo gravitacional.

1 INTRODUCTION

International trade is necessary for ensuring food security and

maintaining public food reserves. A 14% global supply expansion in the

meat market is anticipated by 2030, accompanied by a 5.9% rise in beef

availability (OECD-FAO, 2024). This growth trend is also observed on

the demand side. The consumption of animal protein is driven by dietary

changes resulting from urbanization and rising global average income.

Consequently, there is an anticipated increase in international meat ﬂo-

ws, particularly towards Asia and the Middle East (OECD-FAO, 2024).

Although commodity trade is generally associated with products that

have uniform characteristics, are produced on a large scale and with homo-

geneous physical attributes (Martins; Martinelli, 2010), products can be dif-

ferentiated by historical, institutional and cultural factors, such as religious

traditions and cultural ties (Ermgassen et al., 2021; Carneiro et al., 2022). This

is especially applicable in the meat trade, which, despite being categorized

as a commodity, may be ascribed other characterizations that are not solely

reliant on its physical and observable characteristics (Fonseca et al., 2021).

International negotiations have included speciﬁc provisions for

meat products, considering unobservable quality attributes, including

adherence to processing and slaughter methods, which are essential

for markets inﬂuenced by religious beliefs. Regulations that deﬁne the-

se qualities can inﬂuence market access and generate trade possibilities

(Dall’Azen; Weise, 2014).

The Halal industry, which follows processing rules following the

Islamic religion, encompasses more than 1.8 billion consumers across 112

countries. By 2030, the industry is expected to continue growing, given

the forecast that the Muslim population will reach 29% of the global po-

pulation (Daud; Lee, Ismail; 2022). Furthermore, the number of young

Muslims with higher educational levels is rising, reﬂecting the growth of

a new market segment with high purchasing power, estimated at appro-

ximately USD 2.57 trillion by 2024 (Hossain et al., 2021).

10

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

Similarly, the Kosher meat business oﬀers appealing possibilities.

The term Kosher denotes items prepared by Jewish law and is linked to

health and hygiene due to rigorous food processing, demanding coope-

ration and transparency from supplying companies (Hossain et al., 2021;

Rudy et al., 2019). In 2021, the global Jewish population was predicted

to be roughly 15.2 million, constituting about 0,195% of the total global

population (DellaPergola, 2022). The primary slaughter requirements for

this religious group require the animal’s vitality and awareness during

the slaughter and the complete removal of blood, which is considered

impure and unsuitable for consumption (Rudy et al., 2019).

Halal and Kosher products not only represent religious symbols

with potential for the Islamic and Jewish consumer markets, are also as-

sociated with excellence in quality assurance, attracting non-Muslim and

non-Jewish consumers who value quality, safety, health, and authenticity

(Hossain et al., 2021; Abdul-Talib; Abd-Razak, 2013). To ensure these cha-

racteristics, religious agencies must certify products which attest to com-

pliance with technical standards and the brand’s symbol.

In the realm of certiﬁcations, trust among the parties involved is

important, inﬂuencing the selection of the governance framework and

commercial partner to guarantee reliability. Implementing procedu-

res that cultivate trust among agents is essential for alleviating uncer-

tainty, deterring opportunistic behavior, and reducing transaction costs

(Colares-Santos; Shanoyan; Schiavi, 2020).

However, religious and cultural issues, when incorporated into

contracts, can be considered trade barriers (Audu; Okorie; Orekoya, 2023).

Companies wishing to export products in compliance with religious re-

quirements must adapt their production processes to the standards esta-

blished by their trading partners to ensure market access (Aguiar, 2020).

This leads to additional costs that may reduce exporters’ competitiveness,

with the consequences of leaving the market.

Eventually, this is questioned. Audu; Okorie; Orekoya (2023) sta-

te that religious asymmetries appear to have little impact on trade ﬂo-

ws, even when comparing the most and least religious nations globally.

Regardless of the level of religiosity, countries do not typically form trade

partnerships based on shared religious beliefs. Instead, trade reciprocity

and economic considerations are more relevant in shaping trade. For ins-

tance, countries with high levels of religiosity, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia,

and India, continue to maintain stable trade relations with nations that do

not share their religious traditions, indicating that religion does not di-

rectly inﬂuence trade decisions (Audu; Okorie; Orekoya, 2023). However,

Costa et al (2023) and Hamid et al (2022) argue that religion can aﬀect

positively or negatively the trade of certain products, such as cultural

products (ﬁlms) and food.

New investigations further underscore how religious, cultural

and economic factors shape trade patterns. Applying a gravity model to

Indonesia’s seafood exports, Herianingrum et al. (2024) highlight how

GDP and common language can strengthen export performance and

bolster the Halal market. Meanwhile, Muchtar et al (2025) employ a com-

putable general equilibrium approach to show that free trade agreements

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estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

with countries members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation

(OIC) can boost welfare and real GDP for Indonesia’s halal food sector,

though some product segments may face export declines.

From a diﬀerent angle, Zhang; Saghaian; Reed (2023) use a stochas-

tic frontier gravity model to analyze U.S. bourbon whisky exports, de-

monstrating that economic size, common language, and policy measures

can promote trade, again indicating how specialized product attributes,

religious or otherwise, interact with classical trade drivers. Within the

European Union, Zaninovi (2025) further conﬁrms that factor producti-

vity, resource endowments and the ability to meet evolving standards are

key determinants of agricultural trade ﬂows. These more recent studies

show that production attributes (e.g., Halal compliance, resource use and

geographical indication) intertwine with broader economic variables to

shape the contours of trade, reinforcing the importance of analyzing reli-

gious and cultural distance alongside conventional drivers.

This study adopts an agnostic stance regarding religion’s role in

beef trade, recognizing that cultural factors can both facilitate and hin-

der commercial ﬂows. Religion may reduce transaction costs by fostering

trust among members sharing religious traditions, while religious diﬀe-

rences can create exclusionary practices that function as trade barriers

(Lewer; Van Den Berg, 2007; Lee; Park, 2016).

This analysis contributes to International Relations by examining

how informal institutions shape trade patterns beyond formal agree-

ments and tariﬀs. While traditional international trade literature focuses

on state policies and formal arrangements, this study addresses how cul-

tural norms inﬂuence economic decisions between states, enriching un-

derstanding of how identity factors aﬀect countries’ integration into the

global economy. Based on expansion opportunities in this market seg-

ment and diﬀerent possibilities of trade eﬀects (positive, negative, or non-

-signiﬁcant), the question arises: what is the eﬀect of religious distance on

global beef trade? This study evaluates, through a statistical model, the

eﬀect of religious asymmetry on beef trade ﬂows between 2000 and 2021.

2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 Religious institutions in international relations

International relations theory provides some frameworks for un-

derstanding how cultural factors inﬂuence interstate economic beha-

vior. Liberal institutionalism suggests that shared norms and values re-

duce transaction costs in international cooperation by creating predic-

table behavioral patterns and common standards (Keohane; Nye, 2011).

Constructivist approaches emphasize how cultural identities shape state

preferences and interests beyond material calculations, arguing that ac-

tors’ understanding of their interests is socially constructed through cul-

tural practices and shared meanings (Wendt, 1999).

Religious institutions operate within these theoretical framewor-

ks as informal constraints that create both opportunities for cooperation

12

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

and potential conﬂicts in trade relations. Unlike formal institutions such

as trade agreements or international organizations, religious norms are

embedded in social practices and cultural traditions that persist across

political changes, making them stable but potentially rigid factors in in-

ternational economic relations.

When religious backgrounds align between trading partners, facili-

tative mechanisms emerge. Shared religious practices establish common

products, production, and business conduct expectations, reducing the

need for strict monitoring and veriﬁcation procedures. Religious networ-

ks provide information channels about market conditions and regulatory

requirements that complement formal commercial information systems.

Additionally, transnational religious communities maintain social capital

that enables reputation-based contract enforcement, reducing dependen-

ce on formal legal mechanisms for dispute resolution.

The diaspora literature oﬀers perspectives into these dynamics.

Graham (2014) demonstrates how ethnic and religious networks reduce

information asymmetries in international trade, while Cruz (2013) shows

that diaspora connections help overcome formal trade barriers through

relationship networks. This is because these communities sustain shared

norms, repeated interactions, and reputational mechanisms that lower

transaction costs and improve information ﬂow. Religious communities

function similarly, creating bridges between geographically separated

markets through shared cultural understanding and trust.

However, religious diﬀerences can generate exclusionary practices

that function as non-tariﬀ barriers. Religious dietary restrictions create

market segmentation requiring specialized certiﬁcation procedures, se-

parate supply chains, and costly production adaptations. This segmen-

tation can exclude countries lacking appropriate religious or conformity

infrastructure while providing preferential access to those with establi-

shed certiﬁcation systems.

The dual nature of religious inﬂuence reﬂects broader dynamics

between cultural preservation and economic integration in the interna-

tional political economy. States must balance domestic religious consti-

tuencies’ demands for cultural authenticity with international market ac-

cess requirements, creating policy choices that extend beyond traditional

economic considerations.

2.2 Transaction costs and institutional economics

Classical international trade theories, which focus on productivity

and factor endowment, did not initially highlight trade costs. However,

Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) observe that, as trade expands, tran-

saction costs may surpass transportation costs and tariﬀs. These transac-

tion costs encompass all stages of international business, from negotia-

tions to ﬁnal delivery (Maragno; Kalatziz; Paulillo, 2006).

Transaction Cost Theory (TCT) underscores key assumptions

such as bounded rationality, which refers to limited decision-ma-

king capacity; uncertainty, which addresses information asymmetry;

opportunism, which involves exploiting these asymmetries; and asset

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speciﬁcity, which concerns exclusive features in transactions (Dall’Azen;

Weise, 2014). Economic agents, mindful of these costs, choose gover-

nance structures that minimize them (Mendes; Figueiredo; Michels,

2008). In this regard, institutions arise as governance solutions for pro-

duction and trade (Dasilva-Glasgow, 2020; Cabarello; Soto-Oñate, 2016;

Acemoglu; Antràs; Helpman, 2007), establishing norms and mechanis-

ms that reduce risks and foster trust (Dall’Azen; Weise, 2014).

North (1993) deﬁnes institutions as the “rules of the game” that

direct economic behavior, whether formal (laws, regulations, con-

tracts) or informal (traditions, customs, religion). When informal prac-

tices become formalized, they promote predictable market behavior

(Dall’Azen; Weise, 2014; Mendes; Figueiredo; Michels, 2008). Consistent

with New Institutional Economics, these rules reduce uncertainty, tran-

saction costs, and opportunities for fraud (Bueno, 2004). By implemen-

ting regulations, institutions encourage trust and cooperation, limiting

deceptive conduct and enhancing transparency (Mendes; Figueiredo;

Michels, 2008). Religion, as an informal institution, shapes norms re-

garding acceptable meat products, slaughter practices, and labeling,

thus inﬂuencing supply and demand in the meat trade. Importers’ qua-

lity requirements reinforce consumer conﬁdence in suppliers (Thomé;

Reis; Paiva, 2003).

Yet, if producers fail to meet certain religious guidelines, they

may face barriers in entering speciﬁc markets (Dall’Azen; Weise, 2014).

Studies indicate that shared religious culture can strengthen bilateral

trade by reducing transaction costs (Lewer; Van Den Berg, 2007; Bonne;

Vermeir; Verbeke, 2008; Lee; Park, 2016; Irshad et al, 2018), fostering trust

and minimizing the need for costly adaptations (Czelusniak; Ribeiro;

Dergin, 2018).

Conversely, divergent cultural norms can act like tariﬀs (Lee; Park,

2016). Meeting religious requirements often entails additional invest-

ments in specialized slaughter procedures, certiﬁcations, or training, all

of which can limit access to speciﬁc markets (Dall’Azen; Weise, 2014).

Similarly, cultural factors such as language, colonial heritage, labor re-

lations, and religion tend to remain unchanged over time, reinforcing

consumption patterns and challenging exporters’ eﬀorts to reach certain

markets (Lopez; Gama, 2010).

As a result, the historical, religious, and institutional characteristics

of each region inﬂuence trade patterns. When religions and cultural cus-

toms diﬀer, mistrust generally increases transaction costs and constrains

bilateral trade. Therefore, the economic burden associated with reduced

trade ﬂows can become relevant for key markets.. In light of this, it is

important to examine cultural aspects, particularly religion, as a possib-

le determinant of export performance. This consideration is vital in the

meat industry, which faces strict regulations and anticipates growth in

both consumption and numbers of Jewish and Muslim consumers. The

following section explains the methodology employed in this study.

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Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Theoretical gravity model

Tinbergen (1962) was the ﬁrst to propose a gravity model to ex-

plain international trade ﬂows, suggesting that trade volume between

countries is inﬂuenced by their economic size and the distance between

them. His model laid the groundwork for quantifying deviations bet-

ween observed and expected trade in the absence of barriers. However,

despite its empirical success, the gravity model lacked a solid theoretical

foundation for decades. This gap was addressed by Anderson and van

Wincoop (2003), who developed a micro-founded version of the gravity

model based on a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function

and market-clearing conditions. Their framework provided the necessary

theoretical consistency, enabling more accurate estimations of bilateral

trade ﬂows, following the 1 equation:

where the variable is the exports of product from country to im-

porter in year; is the expenditures of country on products in year; and

are, respectively, the quantity of produced in country and the aggregate

international production of such products in the world, in; and are multi-

lateral resistance terms of trade in; is the elasticity of substitution among

products, represent the bilateral trade costs betweenand countries in year

for product.

The major contribution of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) was

the consolidation of the multilateral resistance terms. The variables and

were formally deﬁned to show that bilateral trade ﬂows are inﬂuenced

not only by the trade costs between two countries but also by costs in-

curred with other trading partners. In other words, trade between coun-

tries i and j is aﬀected not only by their direct costs but also by the costs

between country j and a third country. Mathematically, these indices are

represented by the following equations:

represents external multilateral resistance, indicating that exports

from country i to country j depend on the trade costs between country j

and all potential export markets. denotes internal multilateral resistance

and reﬂects how country j imports depend on trade costs with all possible

supplier countries for products k. The inclusion of these terms marked an

advancement in the gravity model, allowing for more accurate estimates.

According to Carneiro et al (2022), omitting these terms is a major econo-

metric issue that leads to biased estimates due to omitted variable bias. A

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estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

common method to address this issue involves using ﬁxed eﬀects, which

account for any variables representing potential trade frictions.

is a function of all bilateral barriers that aﬀect trade. Literature of-

ten approximates this using a set of variables representing costs, which

may be geographic or historical-institutional, such as distance, conti-

guity, common language, cultural ties, or religious diﬀerences. Also, it

can incorporate measures of trade policy, including tariﬀs and non-tariﬀ

barriers.

Building on this theoretical development, the gravity model has

become a widely used tool in empirical studies involving trade volumes.

Given that trade ﬂows are a key element in economic relations and the

necessary data for estimating the model is easily accessible, many studies

have adopted the gravity model, solidifying it as one of the most utilized

methods in the ﬁeld of international economics (Baldwin; Taglioni, 2006;

Carneiro et al, 2022).

The evolution of the model, as well as improvements in estimation

techniques, as discussed by Yotov et al (2016), has enabled the use of gra-

vity equations to contrast the inﬂuence of trade preferences against other

determinants of trade, such as distance between countries, income levels,

language, borders, trade agreements, religion, among others Anderson;

Larch; Yotov (2020), Carneiro et al (2022) and Costa et al (2023) employed

the gravity model approach to estimate trade determinants.

3.2 Empirical model

The analysis of the relationship between beef exports and bilate-

2

ral religious disparity covered the years 2000 to 2021 . The trade ﬂow

occurred between 21 major beef exporters and 164 trading partners, re-

presenting 95% of the global exports of the product during this period.

The selection of exporters was based on countries responsible for 95% of

global beef imports, similar to the methodology employed by Peci and

Sanjuan (2020), who identiﬁed 40 importing countries that accounted for

80% of global pork imports.

The estimates utilized a panel data framework, analyzing infor-

mation from individuals (countries) across several time points. This data

structure improves estimator eﬃciency and parameter inference accu-

racy, as panel data oﬀers increased degrees of freedom (Hsiao, 2005).

Various beef products were incorporated into the panel alongside the na-

tion and year measurements. The products were categorized at the six-di-

git level following the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding

3

System (HS).

The model is estimated to be using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum

Likelihood (PPML) estimator, which is appropriate for analyzing trade

ﬂows as it addresses the issue of bilateral ﬂows equal to zero in dependent

2. The period from 2000 to 2021 was selected due to the availability of consistent and standardized data,

enabling long-term analysis of cyclical and structural patterns in beef trade. More recent data remain under

revision, making this time frame the most reliable for cross-country comparisons.

3. HS020110, 020120, 020130, 020210, 020220, 020230, 020610, 020621, 020622, 020629, that means beef cuts

(fresh/frozen) and edible offal (tongue, liver, etc.), encompassing whole carcasses or bone-in/boneless portions.

16

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

variable, indicating the absence of trade for certain country pairs, year

and the product, or data missing. Around 94% of the sample contains

zero or missing data. The PPML surpasses the Ordinary Least Squares

(OLS) estimator, omitting observations with zero trade ﬂows, resulting

in selection bias and the loss of signiﬁcant information from null ﬂows.

Besides addressing this issue, the PPML can estimate the model despite

the heteroscedasticity (Santos Silva; Tenreyro, 2006). The functional spe-

ciﬁcation for the estimated equation is articulated as:

4

Where represents beef imports from to importing countries of in

year; is the constant;, are ﬁxed eﬀects of exporter-year-product and im-

porter-year-product; is an index variable; is the bilateral distance between

countries of origin and destination, a proxy for transportation costs; is a

dummy that takes the value 1 if and countries share a common border

and 0 otherwise; is a dummy that takes the value 1 if and countries have

a trade agreement in year and 0 otherwise; is a dummy indicating colo-

nial ties between countries, with value 1 if there are colonial ties and 0

otherwise; is a dummy indicating whether the countries have the same

oﬃcial language, assuming value equal to 1 if so and 0 otherwise; is the

error term.

The Religious Distance variable ( refers to the religious proximity

index (comrelig) developed by the Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Infor-

mations Internationales (CEPII). It is a bilateral similarity measure in built

from country-level shares of three denominations, Catholic, Protestant,

and Muslim, sourced from La Porta et al (1999, 2008). Formally, where

is the share of denomination in country Values near 1 indicate highly

similar compositions; values near 0 indicate little or no overlap. The va-

riable is symmetric, time-invariant in CEPII’s Gravity dataset, and cap-

tures a narrow but tractable dimension of cultural proximity that can

aﬀect trade by shaping information ﬂows and trust. A limitation is that

it aggregates only three traditions and omits others, so it should be read

as a coarse proxy rather than an exhaustive religious landscape (Mayer;

Zignago, 2011).

To provide greater robustness to the model, some alternative es-

timations were carried out to verify whether the eﬀect of the religious

variable remains. Firstly, the estimations were categorized by product

5

type: chilled beef, frozen beef and oﬀal . This distinction is interesting

because the trade of oﬀal may be inﬂuenced by cultural factors, such

as the prohibition against consuming residues and blood in Jewish and

4. Although the analysis is based on export data, import data is used for reliability. Customs authorities have

greater control over import data because it is on this data that customs duties are levied.

5. Chilled beef is fresh meat preserved at 0-4°C with limited shelf life, requiring fast transportation and

serving premium markets. Frozen beef has extended shelf life enabling long-distance trade and representing

53.5% of beef trade during the analyzed period. Offal includes organ meats and by-products that face distinct

religious restrictions, as certain traditions prohibit consumption of blood-containing organs, making this

category potentially more sensitive to religious differences between trading partners.

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Muslim religions. Additionally, there is a distinction for chilled pro-

ducts, as their trade is less frequent than that of frozen beef due to their

perishability and the transportation costs associated with maintaining

refrigeration. These categories may respond diﬀerently to religious dis-

tance because frozen beef dominates trade volumes where cultural trust

matters more, while religious similarity may actually reduce oﬀal trade

when shared dietary restrictions prohibit organ meat consumption.

The second robustness strategy was to control the main exporters

of Halal and Kosher-certiﬁed meat. To this, a dummy variable was im-

6

plemented for the principal global exporters of these products in 2022 ()

(Equation 5), and an interaction between this variable and religion was

analyzed (Equation 6). Also, there was an interaction between this varia-

ble and the religion variable to analyze (Equation 6). Religious slaughter

involves costs associated with modifying manufacturing techniques. If

these countries maintain access to consumer markets, it indicates that

they have not only borne these costs but also remained competitive in

international markets.

Still to test the robustness of the estimates, the population of each

exporter allocated across various religions was included in the model.

The latest data for this information is from 2010 and was applied to all

years of the panel as a proxy for religious representation. While the num-

ber of devotees may ﬂuctuate over time, no signiﬁcant variation in the

proportion of adherents to religions is expected. Consequently, utilizing

lagged data is not anticipated to pose an issue.

, refer to the number of individuals in the exporting country (i)

who adhered to Christianity, Judaism and Islam (Muslims) in 2010, res-

pectively. To estimate these variables, exporter-year-product ﬁxed eﬀects

were removed because their inclusion would lead to the omission of tho-

se variables due to multicollinearity. Importer-year-product ﬁxed eﬀects

were maintained.

Another strategy to test the robustness of the results is to insert the

importer and exporter Gross Domestic Product [GDP] on the gravity mo-

del, replacing the time-varying unilateral ﬁxed eﬀects, which are replaced

by ﬁxed eﬀects of importer, exporter, year and product (Capoani; Barlese,

2021; Nijkamp; Ratajczak, 2021; Ribeiro et al, 2019). The GDP variables

are proxies for the importer’s demand capacity and the exporter’s supply

capacity, respectively.

6. This data is a proxy for the largest exporters between 2001 and 2021. No time series were found to indicate

which countries held the largest market shares for these goods. However, the inclusion of this variable allows

us to associate the largest suppliers of beef with a comparative advantage in exports of meat with religious

certiﬁcates.

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Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

and represent the GDP of the exporter and the importer in year,

respectively. Both variables were absorbed in equation (4) by the ﬁxed

eﬀects importer-year-product and exporter-year-product.

The religion variable did not change for the evaluated years, as it

varies only between countries. For this reason, bilateral ﬁxed eﬀects to

country pairs are not included, as their inclusion would omit the variable

of interest due to multicollinearity issues. The use of time-varying uni-

lateral ﬁxed eﬀects (importer-year, exporter-year) controls multilateral

resistance terms in the theoretical model (Feenstra, 2015; Head; Mayer,

2014). Fally (2015) notes that estimates containing these ﬁxed eﬀects cor-

respond to the structural gravity terms, which diﬀer from the traditional

gravity model. In the structural model, the time-varying unilateral ﬁ-

xed eﬀects determine the expenditures and output adjusted to the actual

values of production and expenditures, represented as and in the theore-

tical model.

One particularly useful feature of the structural gravity model for

empirical applications is its separability, allowing it to be applied to dif-

ferent product categories. This enables the study of bilateral ﬂows for a

speciﬁc product independently. Consequently, the unilateral ﬁxed eﬀects

become importer-time-product and exporter-time-product ﬁxed eﬀects

(Carneiro et al., 2022). Secondly, from a practical perspective, adding ﬁxed

eﬀects ensures a consistent consideration of bilateral trade costs, which

can be achieved in three simple steps: (i) estimating the gravity equa-

tion using PPML; (ii) constructing bilateral trade costs for each country

pair, which this study did not address due to multicollinearity issues with

the variable of interest; and (iii) aggregating bilateral trade costs at the

desired level using the estimates of importer and exporter ﬁxed eﬀects

(Yotov; Piemartini, 2016).

To address step (ii), standard variables commonly used in gravity

models were included. Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) highlight tra-

ditional variables used as proxies for costs in gravity models, such as bi-

lateral distance, shared borders, language, and colonial ties—factors that

represent time-invariant bilateral costs. Additionally, Yotov et al (2016)

recommend estimating the gravity model with spaced intervals, sugges-

ting gaps of 3 to 5 years to capture adjustments in trade ﬂows to trade

policies. However, since this study does not aim to evaluate trade policies

such as tariﬀs or non-tariﬀ measures, the model was estimated without

incorporating time gaps.

19

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

Table 1 provides a description of the variables used in econometric evaluation, inclu-

ding their measurement units and sources.

Table 1 – Description and data source of the variables of model.

Variable

Unit

Source

The United Nations Com-

trade

Bilateral imports of beef

1.000 USD

Religious similarity index. Ranges from 0 to

1 and increases when the pair of countries

share a common religion practiced by a large

part of the population

CEPII Research and Experti-

se on the World Economy

Index (0 to 1)

World Bank

Importer’s GDP

Exporter’s GDP

Current US$

World Bank

Presence of trade agreements between coun-

tries involved in trade

Mario Larch Database

Dummy

Kilometers

Dummy

Bilateral distance between the capitals of the

countries

CEPII Research and Experti-

se on the World Economy

Presence of borders between those involved

in trade

CEPII Research and Experti-

se on the World Economy

CEPII Research and Experti-

se on the World Economy

Common colonial ties between countries

Common language between countries

CEPII Research and Experti-

se on the World Economy

Largest exporters of Halal and Kosher certi-

ﬁed meat

The Halal Times, (2022) e

Grand View Research, (2022)

Number of individuals allo-

cated to each religion (2010

data)

Exporter population adherents to the Chris-

tian, Jewish and Islamic (Muslim) religions

World Religion Data

Source: Author’s elaboration.

4 RESULTS

Before presenting the econometric results, Figure 1 presents infor-

mation about the international beef market from 2000 to 2021, indicating

the largest producers, importers, exporters, and consumers. The U.S. is

the largest beef producer worldwide, with a cumulative production of

275,052 thousand metric tons (MT), underscoring its pivotal position in

the global supply chain. Brazil (207,593 thousand MT) and the European

Union (EU) (176,897 thousand MT) are the next largest producers. Brazil,

with its vast agricultural land and favorable conditions for livestock far-

ming, stands out as the leading producer in Latin America, while China

and India are the major producers in Asia, accounting for 140,121 thou-

sand MT and 72,949 thousand MT, respectively. Despite being the largest

producer, the U.S. is also the top importer of beef, with 30,966 thousand

MT of imports over the period, highlighting strong domestic demand.

China, driven by rapid economic growth and shifting consumption pat-

terns, imported 16,183 thousand MT. Other key markets include Japan

(17,385 thousand MT) and the European Union (10,463 thousand MT),

reﬂecting the global appetite for beef in both developed and expanding

20

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

economies.

Figure 1 – Main producers, importers, exporters and consumers of beef, 2000 to 2021

(in %).

Source: Author’s elaboration based on Foreign Agricultural Service, Ofﬁcial USDA

Estimates⁷.

On the export side, Brazil leads with 39,318 thousand MT of beef

exported, consolidating its position as one of the world’s major suppliers.

Australia (32,580 thousand MT), the U.S. (24,429 thousand MT), and

India (24,844 thousand MT) also stand out as key suppliers to internatio-

nal markets. Domestic consumption trends reﬂect production and im-

port patterns. The U.S., with total consumption of 281,449 thousand MT,

leads the world in beef consumption, highlighting the role of domestic

demand in inﬂuencing the global market. Brazil, with 169,451 thousand

MT, and China, with 155,285 thousand MT, respectively, also emerge as

consumers.

The data indicates that a few key players largely dominate the glo-

bal beef trade. The U.S., Brazil, China, and the EU are major actors in

both production and consumption, while Brazil, Australia, and India lead

as top exporters. The growing demand in Asian markets, especially in

China and Japan, suggests a shift in global consumption trends that were

previously more concentrated in the U.S. and EU, with beef becoming a

more important part of diets in these regions.

7. Available at: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery. Accessed in February

2025.

21

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

The territorial distribution of the Christian, Muslim, and Jewish

religions is presented in Figure 2. Predominantly Christian countries are

located in the Americas, Europe, southern Africa, and Oceania. Muslim

populations are primarily concentrated in northern Africa, the Middle

East, and parts of Asia. Israel is the country with the largest Jewish po-

pulation, holding 75.6% of the world’s Jewish population (Pew Research

Center, 2024). The primary exporters of beef are predominantly Christian

countries.

Figure 2 – Territorial distribution of the Christian, Islamic and Jewish religions in the

world.

Source: Author’s elaboration based in Pew Research Center⁸. Note: Data refer to

2010, the most recent year with available data.

Table 2 presents the descriptive analysis of the variables. The reli-

gious index measures religious similarity between country pairs, whe-

re values equal to or closer to 0 indicate lower religious similarity, and

values closer to 1 represent greater similarity in the religions of the po-

pulations of two countries. The mean value of 0.204103 suggests that, on

average, religious similarity between country pairs is low, indicating dif-

ferences in religious practices among most pairs. The standard deviation

of 0.261002 reﬂects considerable variation in the data, indicating a wide

variation in similarity among countries. The minimum value of 0 indica-

tes that some country pairs have no religious similarity at all, while the

maximum value of 0.960284 suggests that the most similar country pair

shares 96% religious proximity.

Table 2 – Descriptive analysis of variables.

8. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2014/04/04/religious-diversity-index-scores-by-coun-

try/. Accessed in February 2025.

22

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

Variable

Observations

757,680

Mean

531.6

Standard deviation Minimum

Maximum

4,175,342.0

15,565.9

0.0

757,680

7,967.7

4671.9

0.0

0

19,629.5

0.204103

0.261002

0.960284

-

0

1

757,680

750,330

757,680

-

0

1

3.83E+11

1.78E+12

-

1.54E+12

3.39E+12

-

7.60E+07

7.20E+09

0

2.30E+13

1

373,098.7

8,604,929

4.36E+07

1,252,069

3.39E+07

5.75E+07

1,600

1015

5,942,248

1.60E+08

2.33E+08

2,361,557

Source: Author’s elaboration.

Based on descriptive analyses and the observation that some of the

main importers consider the religious aspect as a determinant of beef

consumption, this study estimates the average eﬀect of religious simi-

larity on trade volume. The econometric results are presented in Table

3, with each column representing the results of a diﬀerent econometric

equation.

Table 3 – Econometric results of the gravity model with ﬁxed effects.

1

2

4

5

6

7

3

8

Equation Equation

(4) (5)

Equation Equation Equation Equation

(7)

Equation (6)

Equation (6, 7 e 9)

(9)

(7 e 9)

(5, 7 e 9)

Insertion of

Insertion the HalalKo- of the

Insertion

Insertion of Insertion of the

GDP, reli- variables GDP,

gious share religious share and

Insertion

of GDP

and re-

ligious

share

variables

Only the of the

sher dummy religious Insertion

and the

HalalKosher of the

and religion

interaction

religion

variable

Halal-

Kosher

dummy

portion

of GDP

variables

and Ha-

lalKosher

dummy

variables

the HalalKosher

dummy and the in-

teraction HalalKo-

sher and religion

popula-

tion

1.256

1.392*

(0.815)

1.586

-0.693

-0.007

-0.151

(0.743)

-0.217

-0.440

(0.800)

(1.008)

(0.696)

(0.646)

(0.698)

1.841***

(0.322)

(0.744)

1.763***

(0.424)

0.486

-0.505

(0.445)

-0.481

(0.450)

-

-0.278

-

(0.899)

(1.087)

-0.756***

(0.225)

0.210**

(0.099)

-0.337***

(0.068)

-0.110

-0.438

-0.756***

(0.223)

-

(0.180)

0.363***

(0.115)

-0.109*

(0.062)

(0.315)

0.316***

(0.110)

0.211**

(0.098)

-0.216**

(0.096)

-0.336***

(0.067)

23

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

1

2

4

5

6

7

3

8

Equation Equation

(4) (5)

-0.718*** -0.570**

Equation Equation Equation Equation

(7)

Equation (6)

Equation (6, 7 e 9)

(9)

(7 e 9)

(5, 7 e 9)

-0.565**

(0.229)

0.968

0.296

0.547**

(0.258)

0.327

-0.235

-0.234

(0.199)

0.825

(0.226)

0.962

(0.229)

2.757***

(1.013)

0.981**

(0.476)

1.193***

(0.369)

0.850***

(0.317)

(0.215)

3.203***

(1.141)

(0.163)

1.999*

(0.165)

1.079

(0.815)

2.035*

(0.800)

0.642

(0.811)

0.758

(0.811)

0.78

(1.089)

0.731**

(0.354)

0.853**

(0.350)

0.605**

(0.245)

0.671***

(0.192)

1.363***

(0.212)

(1.116)

1.518***

(0.534)

1.036**

(0.466)

1.092***

(0.379)

0.774***

(0.279)

0.475*

0.727**

(0.357)

0.858**

(0.352)

0.606**

(0.244)

0.679***

(0.201)

1.365***

(0.212)

-32.078***

(6.483)

655190

(0.470)

0.776**

(0.374)

0.600**

(0.254)

(0.486)

0.821**

(0.381)

0.683***

(0.246)

(0.506)

0.804**

(0.383)

0.683***

(0.247)

1.384***

(0.365)

0.797***

(0.276)

0.301***

(0.098)

-

(0.252)

1.377***

(0.206)

1.390***

(0.208)

16.795*** 15.659*** 15.602***

5.848*

(3.211)

268940

-43.791*** -39.419*** -31.870***

(1.925)

243516

(2.094)

243516

(2.138)

243516

(6.817)

655190

(6.708)

655190

(6.459)

655190

N

R2

EF

Yes a

Source: Author’s elaboration. Values in parentheses refer to robust standard errors

clustered by country pair. * p<0.10.** p<0.05. *** p<0.01. a EF of importer-year-pro-

duct, exporter-year-product; b EF of importer-year-product; c EF of importer, year and

product. Missing values in the dependent variable were replaced by zero indicating

the absence of bilateral trade for the country-sector-year pair combination.

For total beef exports, the variable wasn’t statistically signiﬁcant in

trade across all regressions, except in 2 column. Various functional forms

were employed to test the robustness of the eﬀects of religious distance

on trade ﬂows, and in almost all estimations, beef trade wasn’t aﬀected

by religious heterogeneity between parties. This ﬁnding is consistent

with Iannaccone (1998) and Audu; Okorie; Orekoya (2023), who suggest

that there is no relationship between religion and economic activity.

Furthermore, the sample includes all types of meat, and there may be

hidden heterogeneity among the beef modality heterogeneity that aﬀects

the average results.

Since the sample of countries considered in the study is quite he-

terogeneous, it is important to highlight speciﬁc characteristics of the

exporters. When the analysis incorporates the dummy (column 2), it con-

trols for the main exporting countries of Islamic and Jewish products. In

this case, religion has a positive and signiﬁcant eﬀect on trade ﬂows, that

is, the impact of religious symmetry on trade when the main exporters

of Halal and Kosher certiﬁed meat are not considered. When isolating

from estimates, countries with appropriate certiﬁcations to foster trust

among Halal and Kosher meat consumers, the religious proximity posi-

tively aﬀects trade ﬂows, suggesting that the greater the religious simi-

larity, the higher the trade ﬂows are likely to be. On the other hand, the

interaction term (column 3) reinforces the previous ﬁnding that, for the

24

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

main exporters of meat subject to religious requirements, does not have

signiﬁcant trade eﬀects.

To understand the eﬀect of religion on beef trade, columns 4, 6, 7,

and 8 include the proportion of religious people from diﬀerent religions

in the exporter country population in the estimations. In all cases, con-

sidering the religious population did not alter the non-signiﬁcant eﬀect

of religious symmetry between country pairs on trade volume. To test

the robustness of these estimates, the ﬁxed eﬀects for exporter-year-pro-

duct were removed. Without any additional control variables, the results

indicate that the number of Christians in the exporting country has no

statistically signiﬁcant relationship with trade. However, the larger the

Jewish population in the exporting country, the stronger the positive re-

lationship with beef exports, while the larger the Muslim population, the

more negative the relationship with beef trade.

The results are robust when controls for the economic size of the

countries are added, which includes the importer and exporter GDP (co-

lumn 6), the dummy variable (column 7), and the interaction term (co-

lumn 8). In the inclusion of these last variables, the Christian population,

represented by ln, showed a negative statistical relationship with trade

ﬂows, suggesting that the larger the Christian population in the expor-

ting country, the lower trade. In 8 column, populations were re-estimated

one by one. In this case, the relationship between the Christian popula-

tion and trade remained non-signiﬁcant, while the Jewish population (p

< 0.01) and Muslim population (p < 0.001) maintained their signiﬁcance

and sign.

The population size can have two distinct interpretations concer-

ning trade in the context of religious diﬀerences. First, when most of a

country’s population follows religions diﬀerent from those in another

country, this may lead to a reduction in trade transactions due to the

religious requirements imposed by consumers in importing countries,

which limits meat exports from countries with religiously distinct po-

pulations. A second explanation concerns countries with predominantly

religious populations that follow traditional practices. In such markets,

much of the meat produced is likely for domestic consumption or trade

with countries sharing similar religions. This argument is supported by

Irshad et al (2018), who suggest that countries with similar religions tend

to engage in more trade with one another.

The positive coeﬃcient for Jewish populations may reﬂect the con-

centration of Jewish communities in developed countries with advanced

meat processing capabilities and established export networks. Jewish

dietary laws (Kosher) require extensive supervision and certiﬁcation

infrastructure, which may signal higher quality standards that beneﬁt

overall meat exports beyond religious markets. Conversely, the negative

coeﬃcient for Muslim populations may reﬂect supply-side constraints in

countries with large Muslim populations. Many Muslim-majority coun-

tries may prioritize domestic consumption or have production systems

less oriented toward international export markets. Additionally, Halal

certiﬁcation requirements may involve diﬀerent production adaptations

that create trade-oﬀs between serving domestic religious populations and

25

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

competing in broader international markets.

The expectation that religion might matter in beef markets stems

from the dominance of Christian-majority countries as major exporters,

which creates an apparent puzzle. If comparative advantage based on

land endowments and production costs primarily determines beef export

patterns, religious factors should be irrelevant. However, the presence

of religious minorities within exporting countries may create speciali-

zed production capacities that serve global religious markets. Countries

like Australia and Brazil, while predominantly Christian, have developed

Halal and Kosher certiﬁcation infrastructure that enables access to rapi-

dly growing Muslim and Jewish consumer populations, suggesting that

religious considerations operate alongside rather than against traditional

comparative advantage factors.

The analysis for disaggregated products (Table 4) shows that frozen

meat trade (column 2) and oﬀal (column 9) are signiﬁcantly inﬂuenced by

the variable in some particular cases. Religious proximity between coun-

try pairs indicates a positive relationship with trade ﬂows for frozen meat

and a negative relationship for oﬀal.

Table 4 – Results of the gravity model with ﬁxed effects, for different beef types.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Equation Equation Equation Equation

Equation

(6 e 9)

Equation

(6 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

(4)

(6)

Chilled

beef, in-

sertion of

religious

portion,

Halal

Kosher

dummy,

Halal

Frozen

beef, in-

sertion of

religious

portion,

Halal

Kosher

dummy,

Halal

Oﬀal, in-

sertion of

religious

share, Ha-

lalKosher

dummy,

HalalKo-

sher inte-

raction,

Chilled

Frozen

Oﬀal,

beef, in-

sertion of

the Ha-

lalKosher

dummy,

HalalKo-

sher inte-

raction,

religion

and GDP

beef, in-

sertion of

the Ha-

lalKosher

dummy,

HalalKo-

sher inte-

raction,

religion

and GDP

insertion

of the Ha-

lalKosher

dummy,

HalalKo-

sher inte-

raction,

Chilled

beef

Frozen

beef

Oﬀal

Kosher in- Kosher in- religion

religion

and GDP

teraction,

religion

teraction,

religion

and GDP

1.717

1.963*

(1.093)

-1.502

-0.253

(1.211)

0.586

0.262

-0.563

(1.190)

1.236**

(0.524)

-0.100

(1.534)

0.517

-0.116

-1.722*

(1.037)

1.876***

(0.447)

0.034

(1.140)

(1.102)

(0.944)

0.891**

(0.386)

1.00

(0.951)

0.808

(0.998)

1.680***

(0.408)

0.801

-

(0.642)

0.983

(0.779)

1.764

(1.878)

(0.978)

(2.123)

-1.409***

(0.443)

0.624***

(0.120)

-0.636***

(0.116)

-0.488***

(0.174)

(0.974)

-0.449**

(0.215)

-0.013

(1.507)

-1.173***

(0.426)

0.392**

(0.171)

-

(0.099)

-0.237***

(0.067)

0.279

-0.503***

(0.127)

-0.702*

(0.367)

-1.052*** -0.413

(0.211) (0.264)

-0.554

(0.421)

-0.189

-0.721***

(0.259)

-0.047

(0.245)

(0.368)

(0.270)

26

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Equation Equation Equation Equation

Equation

(6 e 9)

Equation

(6 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

Equation

(6, 7 e 9)

(4)

(6)

2.147**

(0.847)

1.506*

(0.808)

0.571

0.727

-0.709

(1.350)

2.347***

(0.822)

-0.393

(0.497)

-0.245

(0.457)

-0.233

(0.683)

1.375***

(0.529)

0.988**

(0.385)

0.579*

(0.318)

1.167

2.493**

(1.072)

2.274***

(0.842)

0.326

5.030***

(1.295)

0.865*

1.657

0.692

(0.804)

-1.031

(0.714)

0.860**

(0.437)

0.776***

(0.292)

(0.879)

-0.077

(1.022)

-0.435

(1.631)

1.161

(0.655)

1.468***

(0.421)

0.948***

(0.275)

0367

(0.462)

0.309

(0.610)

1.334***

(0.406)

0.772***

(0.293)

0.516***

(0.191)

(0.889)

-0.223

(0.560)

-0.12

(0.433)

0.527**

(0.260)

(0.742)

-0.339

(0.391)

0.519*

(0.389)

(0.273)

1.248***

(0.452)

1.427***

(0.288)

-37.394***

(11.113)

191517

(0.354)

1.140***

(0.303)

0.560***

(0.184)

0.316***

(0.121)

0.372***

(0.129)

-

(0.083)

1.630***

(0.280)

-44.461

(8.708)

192840

1.477***

(0.221)

0.540***

(0.192)

1.617***

(0.282)

18.888*** 14.323*** 15.332*** -40.554***

-17.484**

(7.772)

-42.704*** -11.342

(2.200)

70389

(2.533)

84085

(3.940)

89042

(7.276)

191517

(9.172)

(7.084)

250400

N

250400

192840

R2

EF

Yes a

Source: Author’s elaboration. Values in parentheses refer to robust standard errors

clustered by country pair. * p<0.10.** p<0.05. *** p<0.01. a EF of importer-year-pro-

duct, exporter-year-product; b EF of importer-year-product; c EF of importer, year and

product. Missing values in the dependent variable were replaced by zero indicating

the absence of bilateral trade for the country-sector-year pair combination.

In the frozen meat trade, the signiﬁcant results occur only in the

general model, the results are not consistent with the inclusion of the va-

riable, the interaction term (column 5), and the proportion of adherents

to religions variables (column 8). For oﬀal beef, the results were only sig-

niﬁcant when the controls, the interaction term, and the religious sha-

re were included. Sharing religious norms reduces compliance costs and

increases competitiveness for exporters with similar traditions as their

trading partners. Stronger cultural and social ties facilitate trade and the

formation of partnerships. These ties establish a greater degree of trust

and mutual compliance in meat production and trade practices, easing

trade transactions between partners. The frozen beef trade was particu-

larly aﬀected because transactions in this type of meat are more frequent

than in other categories. Of the beef trade during the investigated period,

53.5% was frozen, 36.3% was chilled meat, and 10.2% was oﬀal.

Countries with similar traditions tend to have similar food prefe-

rences. Some religions impose speciﬁc dietary restrictions that prohibit

the consumption of certain foods, such as oﬀal, which may be considered

impure or associated with speciﬁc ritual practices. Therefore, countries

with similar religious traditions are negatively correlated with the trade

of this type of meat, as they avoid consuming oﬀal to prevent impurity

and demonstrate religious respect.

The variable was positive and signiﬁcant in regressions (8) and (9) for

frozen meat and oﬀal, respectively. This dummy variable represents the

largest exporters of Halal and Kosher meat and reﬂects the characteristics

27

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

and competitive advantages of these countries, making them more likely

to engage in large-scale trade transactions for meats that meet religious

requirements.

For the other variables, the trade elasticity of distance, represented

by the estimated logarithmic variable, is negative and statistically signi-

ﬁcant, demonstrating its relevance as a trade resistance factor. More spe-

ciﬁcally, distance serves as a proxy for transportation costs, which may

involve the need for specialized transportation, such as refrigerated con-

tainers, increasing logistical expenses over longer distances. This result

aligns with Gani (2021), who argues that a 1% increase in the distance

between a pair of countries causes a 0.71% decline in trade between them.

The binary variable measuring the colonial relationship between

countries is not signiﬁcant. This ﬁnding is consistent with Bampi; Zago

de Azevedo; dos Reis (2020), who argue that global integration and the

evolution of trade have made colonial trade relations irrelevant. Similarly,

the coeﬃcient for contiguity is also not signiﬁcant. Junior, Massuquetti;

Azevedo (2017) suggest that the establishment of trade agreements can

enhance logistical development through the incorporation of transport

technology, and therefore, sharing a common border may indeed be in-

signiﬁcant in explaining trade.

The language variable reveals statistical signiﬁcance and a positive

coeﬃcient, indicating the advantage that a common language provides

in increasing trade levels (Majeed et al, 2019). A common language fa-

cilitates communication and negotiation, reducing the language barrier

and associated costs of translating packaging and labels. Moreover, it can

also serve as a cultural link between countries that speak the same native

language.

Membership in trade agreements, represented by the RTA variable,

shows statistical signiﬁcance with a positive eﬀect on trade ﬂows. Trade

agreements facilitate trade between countries by establishing common

terms and implementing less restrictive tariﬀ policies. Majeed et al (2019),

citing the case of Halal markets, discuss how commercial gains could be

achieved if countries with similar cultural backgrounds developed a con-

solidated beef market, including a common certiﬁcation body for Halal

products. Such preferential agreements could enhance trade between re-

ligious countries while potentially limiting trade opportunities for non-

-member markets.

The GDP of importers and exporters countries also exhibited sig-

niﬁcance with positive parameters. The exporter’s GDP indicates produc-

tion capacity, while the importer’s GDP reﬂects consumption capacity.

In the context of trade inﬂuenced by religious considerations, exporting

countries must adapt their production and marketing strategies to meet

the cultural demands of the importing countries. These importers are

expected to pay a premium for meat produced under religious certiﬁca-

tion. This aligns with the predictions of the gravity model, as noted by

Gani (2021).

28

Michelle Márcia Viana Martins Effects of religious heterogeneity on global beef trade

5 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

Although the global beef trade is concentrated among a few expor-

ting countries, the question arose whether this trade could be inﬂuenced

by religion as a cultural factor. Some studies have demonstrated that sha-

red religious beliefs favor shipments from economies with similar reli-

gious practices. To broaden the analysis, this study investigated whether

this eﬀect persisted across a larger sample that included all beef-impor-

ting countries.

The expansion of global supply chains and the increase in inter-

national shipments require countries to adapt to the demands of foreign

markets. In the beef sector, this involves navigating a complex industry

where slaughtering and processing practices are often dictated by reli-

gious speciﬁcations. Emphasizing the religious aspect underscores the

need to examine the various barriers to exports, as trade with speciali-

zed markets necessitates suppliers adapt their practices and obtain the

appropriate certiﬁcations. This study explored beef exports through the

lens of diﬀerent religious beliefs, focusing on the stringent requirements

imposed by Halal and Kosher consumer markets.

The results show that bilateral beef trade is inﬂuenced by factors

such as distance, importer and exporter income, common language, and

trade agreements. However, no statistically signiﬁcant relationships were

found between religion and trade ﬂows in the analysis that includes all

types of beef, particularly without speciﬁc controls for major Halal and

Kosher beef exporters. This result indicates that, for a broader group of

countries, not just those with speciﬁc religious requirements, cultural va-

riables were not a determinant of trade. This ﬁnding could be consistent

with two key arguments: First, not all countries strictly enforce laws on

beef slaughter based on religious beliefs like those of Islam and Judaism.

While these religions profoundly inﬂuence the culture and lifestyles of

their followers, aﬀecting their dietary patterns. Second, the institutions

in exporting countries may be suﬃciently adapted to minimize transac-

tion costs related to religious slaughter requirements.

However, when controlling for the major exporters of Halal- and

Kosher-certiﬁed beef, religion emerges as a factor in determining the beef

trade. The statistical signiﬁcance of religion variable indicates that reli-

gious similarity between countries inﬂuences animal protein shipments.

Nevertheless, countries that do not share similar religious practices with

their trading partners can still establish successful international nego-

tiations by understanding the institutions that shape market behavior,

including cultural customs, laws, and religious considerations of the im-

porting country.

The results suggest that trade eﬀects operate primarily through

religious population composition in exporting countries rather than bila-

teral religious distance per se. The signiﬁcant coeﬃcients for Jewish and

Muslim population shares, combined with the generally non-signiﬁcant

religious distance variable, indicate that domestic religious demogra-

phics matter more for export performance than cultural similarity with

trading partners. This pattern suggests that religious minorities within

29

estudos internacionais • Belo Horizonte, ISSN 2317-773X, v. 13, n. 2, (jun. 2025), p. 9-33

exporting countries may drive specialized production capabilities that

serve global markets, rather than religious proximity facilitating trade

through reduced transaction costs between similar countries.

Religious culture can inﬂuence the international beef trade in se-

veral ways, as it shapes dietary preferences and consumption practices

regarding animal protein. Speciﬁcally, religion plays a relevant role in

determining beef imports for predominantly Islamic or Jewish countries

in their trade with the global market. The procedures required for Halal

and Kosher certiﬁcation exemplify the speciﬁc standards that beef must

meet to enter these markets.

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