Using Land Change Modeler (LCM) as a tool to analyze variations on land cover and spatial occupation:

practical application on "Serra de São José" conservation area in Minas Gerais.

Abstract

The geomorphological structure known as "Serra de São José" in Minas Gerais, Brazil, is a scenic, historical and cultural landmark in the surrounding municipalities. The reason that stimulated the creation, in 1990, of a conservation unit in this region - aimed at its preservation. Thus, the following study intends to analyze the evolution of land cover and spatial occupation in the "Serra de São José" environmental protection area (represented by initials APA in Portuguese) through the analysis of Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images in an approximate period of 25 years from its creation as a conservation unit. For this analysis, it carried out a study of land use and spatial occupation in this area at two different times - in 1990 (when the conservation unit was created) and in 2015 - using tools available in ArcGIS software (version 10.3) that provide the classification of digitally processed images based on three pre-established classes of land using: Natural Coverture, Farming Utilization and Urban-industrial Utilization. With this suggested classification, the Idrisi software is used to detect changes in land use and spatial occupation, examining variation between pre-established classes through the periods (from 1990 to 2015) by the use of the LCM (Land Change Modeler) tool available on software's package, in which changes have been identified between those analyzed areas trough time – the analyses indicate that urban-industrial areas expanded over farming areas and the latter expanded over natural coverture areas. This analysis makes it possible to detect the focus of the main changes that occurred (in this area) to assist in environmental planning, plus allows for evaluating the effectiveness of this specific APA as a conservation unit.