Comparando a Eficácia das Frotas Submarinas de Propulsão Nuclear e Independente do Ar: uma metodologia para escolhas alternativas de projeto de força aplicada ao caso brasileiro
uma metodologia para escolhas alternativas de projeto de força aplicada ao caso brasileiro
Palavras-chave:
Composição da esquadra, Planejamento de força, Estudos estratégicos, Brasil, Submarino
Resumo
Este artigo propõe uma metodologia que permite a quem tem valores de custo reais realizar os cálculos de custo-benefício, estritamente do ponto de vista tático e logístico, sobre a equivalência de desempenho, não de submarinos de propulsão nuclear versus de propulsão independente do ar (AIP) , mas de frotas de submarinos nucleares vs. AIP. Com isso em mãos, torna-se possível para quem quer que tenha números mais sólidos do que poderíamos encontrar sobre o custo do ciclo de vida completo de qualquer alternativa descobrir, dados os nossos resultados sobre a avaliação de benefícios, qual seria o resultado de um benefício. análise de custo. Não realizamos o último, devido à incerteza sobre a metodologia pela qual as estimativas de custo disponíveis ao público foram calculadas. Ao fornecer um método de cálculo do benefício do valor militar das alternativas para apoiar uma avaliação das alternativas da frota SSN / SSP, esperamos ter fornecido um ponto de partida mais sólido para o debate, tanto em termos gerais, um método, como para o brasileiro caso em particular, um aplicativo.
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Referências
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ANDERSSON, JJ. “Submarine Capabilities and Conventional Deterrence in Southeast Asia”. Contemporary Security Policy, v. 36, n. 3, p. 473-497, 2015.
BRAZIL. Política Nacional de Defesa National Defense Policy - PND / Estratégia Nacional de Defesa National Defense Strategy – END. Brasília: Ministry of Defense, 2012.
BROWN, D. K. “The Technology of Submarine Design A Historical Survey 1905–1945.” Interdisciplinary Science Reviews v. 15, n. 3, p. 235–51, 1990.
BUCKINGHAM, J. “The Balance of Transit Range v Patrol Duration”. UDT Europe 2009: 4B.1, BMT Defence Services, 2009.
BURCHER, R. & RYDILL, L. Concepts in Submarine Design. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994.
CHRISTLEY, J. US Nuclear Submarines: The Fast Attack. Oxford: UK, Osprey Publishing, 2007.
CLANCY, T., & GRESHAM, J. Submarine Reissue Edition. New York: Berkley, 2003.
CLARK, B. The Emerging Era in Undersea Warfare. CSBA, 2012.
COLES, J; GREENFIELD, P & FISHER, A. Study into the Business of Sustaining Australia’s Strategic Collins Class Submarine Capability. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2012.
COLLINS, JF. “Towards a Renewed Canadian Submarine Capability.” Naval Association of Canada, 2020.
CORRÊA, FG. Sob as percepções dos Governos Geisel e Lula acerca do Submarino nuclear e da Grande Estratégia Nacional. mimeo, 2008.
COYLE, RG. “Who Rules the Waves? – A Case Study in System Description.” Journal of the Operational Research Society. v. 34, n. 9, p. 885–98, 1983.
COYLE, RG & GARDINER, PA. A System Dynamics Model of Submarine Operations and Maintenance Schedules. Journal of the Operational Research Society, v. 42, n. 6, p. 453–462, 1991.
DAWOOD, L; HERZ, M & LAGE, VC. Brazilian Nuclear Policy. Canberra: Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, 2015.
DAWOOD, L. & HERZ, M. “Nuclear Governance in Latin America”. Contexto Internacional v. 35, n. 2, p. 497-535, 2013.
DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY. “France’s Future SSNs: The Barracuda Class”. February 12, 2015. Available at:
DENNY, M. Blip, Ping & Buzz: Making Sense of Radar and Sonar. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007.
DINIZ COSTA, EPL. “Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine: A Broader Approach to the Safeguards Issue”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional v. 60, n. 2, p. 1-20, 2017.
DUARTE, EE & KENKEL, KM. “Contesting perspectives on South Atlantic maritime security governance: Brazil and South Africa”. South African Journal of International Affairs v. 26, n. 3, p. 395-412, 2019.
EWING, D. Jane’s Underwater Warfare Systems 2011-2012. Alexandria: Jane’s Information Group, 2011.
FONTENOY, PE. Submarines: An Illustrated History of Their Impact Illustrated Edition. Santa Barbara (Calif): ABC-CLIO, 2007.
FRIBOURG, C. La propulsion nucléaire des navires. http://www.energethique.com/ applications/Propulsion_nucleaire_des_navires.htm, nd.
FRIEDMAN, N. Submarine Design and Development. Annapolis (MD): Naval Institute Press, 1984.
GABINO, A. “Câmara dos Deputados Debate Transferência de Tecnologia e Nacionalização de Produtos de defesa”. Revista Operacional, August 8, 2014. https://www.revistaoperacional.com.br/2014/md/camara-dos-deputados-debate-transferencia-de-tecnologia-e-nacionalizacao-de-produtos-de-defesa/
GARDNER, WJR. Anti-Submarine Warfare. London; Washington (DC): Potomac Books Inc, 1996.
GATES, PJ, & LYNN, NM. Ships, Submarines and the Sea. London; Washington (DC): Brassey’s Inc, 1990.
HAYNES, P. “What U.S. Navy Strategists and Defense Planners Should Think about in the Era of Maritime Great Power Competition.” Defense & Security Analysis v. 36, n. 1, p. 101–8, 2020.
HERVEY, JB. Submarines. London; New York: Potomac Books Inc, 1994.
HUAN, C. & MOULIN, J. Les sous-marins français 1945-2000. Rennes Cedex: Marines Éditions, 2010.
HUBER, MM. Chokepoint Control: Operational Challenges for Blue-Water Navies. Washington (DC): National War College, 2003.
HUGHES, W & GIRRIER, R. Fleet Tactics And Naval Operations, Third Edition. Annapolis (MD): Naval Institute Press, 2018.
IAEA — INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY. Agreement of 13 December 1991 Between the Republic of Argentina, the Federative Republic of Brazil, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards. Vienna: The International Atomic Energy Agency. INFCIRC 435 [The Quadripartite Agreement], 1994.
IPPOLITO JR, TD. Effects of Variation of Uranium Enrichment on Nuclear Submarine Reactor Design. Dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990.
IZIQUE, C. “O Submarino que dá luz”. Pesquisa Fapesp v. 139, p. 30-33, 2007.
KASSENOVA, T. Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: an Evolving Identity. Washington (DC): Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2014.
KASSENOVA, T. Brazil, Argentina, and the Politics of Global Nonproliferation and Nuclear Safeguards. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 29, 2016. http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/11/29/brazil-argentina-and-politics-of-globalnonproliferation- and-nuclear-safeguards-pub-66286
KOPTE, S; RENNER, M & WILKE, P. “The cost of disarmament: Dismantlement of weapons and the disposal of military surplus”. The Nonproliferation Review v. 3, n. 2, p. 33-45, 1996.
KOPTE, S. Nuclear Submarine Decommissioning and Related Problems. Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion, 1997.
KORMILITSIN, YV & KHALIZEV, OK. Theory of Submarine Design. London: Hard Cover, 2001.
LEONG, AKW. “Are two subs enough? Malaysia’s small submarine force and lessons from strategic history”. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, v. 8, n. 4, p. 298-307, 2016.
MARINHA DO BRASILProjeto e Construção. s.d.. Available at:. Accessed in September 16th, 2019.
McCUE, B. U-Boats in the Bay of Biscay: An Essay in Operations Analysis. Xlibris Corporation, 2008.
MILLER, D. Modern Submarine Warfare. New York: Crescent, 1987.
MILLER, DMO, & MILLER, C. Modern Naval Combat. Salamander Books Ltd, 2001.
MORRISON, SL. “U.S. Naval Battle Force Changes, 1 January 2010-31 December 2010.” US Naval Institute Proceedings, May, p. 106-120, 2011.
MURRAY, RL. Nuclear Energy: An Introduction to Concepts, Systems, and Applications of Nuclear Processes. 5th Edition. Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2001.
NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE NTI. Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine. Washington: D. C., Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2015. http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-capabilities
OLIVEIRA, LK; CEPIK, M & BRITTES, PVP. “O Pré-Sal e a Segurança do Atlântico Sul: A defesa em camadas e o papel da integração sul-americana”. Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval 20 1, p. 139-164, 2014.
PADILHA, L. “Submarino Nuclear Brasileiro ‘Álvaro Alberto’ SN 10.” Defesa Aérea e Naval, December 7th, 2012, https://www.defesaaereanaval.com.br/submarino-nuclearbrasileiro- alvaro-alberto-sn-10/ Retrieved September 5th, 2016.
POLMAR, n. & MOORE, KJ. Cold War Submarines: The Design and Construction of U.S. and Soviet Submarines, 1945-2001. Washington: D.C, Potomac Books Inc, 2003.
POMPER, ME & HUNTINGTON, W. Interview with Odair Gonçalves, President of Brazil’s Nuclear Energy Commission. Arms Control Association, September 28, 2005, https://www.armscontrol.org/20050928_Goncalves
PROENÇA JR., D. & LESSA, MA. “Brazilian national defence policy and strategy reviewed as a unity”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, v. 60, n. 2, p. e010, 2017. Epub January 18, 2018
PSALLIDAS, K; WHITCOMB, CA & HOOTMAN, JC. “Design of Conventional Submarines with Advanced Air Independent Propulsion Systems and Determination of Corresponding Theater-Level Impacts”. Naval Engineering Journal, n. 1, 2010, p. 111-123.
RABKIN, NJ et al. Nuclear-powered ships: Accounting for shipyard costs and nuclear waste disposal plans. Washington (DC): United States General Accounting Office, 1992.
RAGHEB, M. “Nuclear Naval Propulsion”. In Nuclear Power - Deployment, Operation and Sustainability, edited by Pavel Tsvetkov. Intech, 2011. https://www.intechopen.com/books/nuclear-power-deployment-operation-andsustainability/ nuclear-naval-propulsion
RASKA, M. “Diesel-Electric Submarine Modernization in Asia: The Role of Air-Independent Propulsion Systems.” In Emerging Critical Technologies and Security in the Asia-Pacific, edited by RA Bitzinger, London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016, p. 91–106
RAWSON, KJ & TUPPER, EC. Basic Ship Theory. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2001.
ROSA, JL. “Submarinos podem atrasar mais se houver novos cortes”. Valor Econômico, 2018. Available at: Acess September 16th, 2019.
SÁ, A. “Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine Program.” The Nonproliferation Review v. 22, n. 1, p. 3–25, 2015.
SILVA, ARA & JAA DE MOURA. “The Brazilian Navy’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Program.” The Nonproliferation Review v. 23, n. 5–6, p. 617–33, 2016.
SPELLER, I. Understanding Naval Warfare. London; New York: Routledge, 2014.
VILARDAGA, V. “A nova geração de submarinos brasileiros”. Isto É, 2018. Available at:
WAGNER, DH; MYLANDER, WC & SANDERS, TJ Eds). Naval Operations Analysis, Third Edition. Naval Institute Press, 1999.
WAITE, AD. Sonar for Practising Engineers. Chichester (West Sussex): Wiley, 2002.
WHITMAN, EC. “Air-Independent Propulsion”. Undersea Warfare, 2010. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_13/propulsion.htm, accessed 2019-06-30
WU, S. “The Modern Naval Fortress: An Additional Sea Denial Option for Coastal States.” Defence Studies v. 18, n. 1, p. 76–94, 2018.
ZIMMERMAN, S. Submarine Technology for the 21st Century. 2nd Edition. Victoria, B.C.: Trafford Publishing, 2000.
ANDERSSON, JJ. “Submarine Capabilities and Conventional Deterrence in Southeast Asia”. Contemporary Security Policy, v. 36, n. 3, p. 473-497, 2015.
BRAZIL. Política Nacional de Defesa National Defense Policy - PND / Estratégia Nacional de Defesa National Defense Strategy – END. Brasília: Ministry of Defense, 2012.
BROWN, D. K. “The Technology of Submarine Design A Historical Survey 1905–1945.” Interdisciplinary Science Reviews v. 15, n. 3, p. 235–51, 1990.
BUCKINGHAM, J. “The Balance of Transit Range v Patrol Duration”. UDT Europe 2009: 4B.1, BMT Defence Services, 2009.
BURCHER, R. & RYDILL, L. Concepts in Submarine Design. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994.
CHRISTLEY, J. US Nuclear Submarines: The Fast Attack. Oxford: UK, Osprey Publishing, 2007.
CLANCY, T., & GRESHAM, J. Submarine Reissue Edition. New York: Berkley, 2003.
CLARK, B. The Emerging Era in Undersea Warfare. CSBA, 2012.
COLES, J; GREENFIELD, P & FISHER, A. Study into the Business of Sustaining Australia’s Strategic Collins Class Submarine Capability. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2012.
COLLINS, JF. “Towards a Renewed Canadian Submarine Capability.” Naval Association of Canada, 2020.
CORRÊA, FG. Sob as percepções dos Governos Geisel e Lula acerca do Submarino nuclear e da Grande Estratégia Nacional. mimeo, 2008.
COYLE, RG. “Who Rules the Waves? – A Case Study in System Description.” Journal of the Operational Research Society. v. 34, n. 9, p. 885–98, 1983.
COYLE, RG & GARDINER, PA. A System Dynamics Model of Submarine Operations and Maintenance Schedules. Journal of the Operational Research Society, v. 42, n. 6, p. 453–462, 1991.
DAWOOD, L; HERZ, M & LAGE, VC. Brazilian Nuclear Policy. Canberra: Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, 2015.
DAWOOD, L. & HERZ, M. “Nuclear Governance in Latin America”. Contexto Internacional v. 35, n. 2, p. 497-535, 2013.
DEFENSE INDUSTRY DAILY. “France’s Future SSNs: The Barracuda Class”. February 12, 2015. Available at:
DENNY, M. Blip, Ping & Buzz: Making Sense of Radar and Sonar. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007.
DINIZ COSTA, EPL. “Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine: A Broader Approach to the Safeguards Issue”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional v. 60, n. 2, p. 1-20, 2017.
DUARTE, EE & KENKEL, KM. “Contesting perspectives on South Atlantic maritime security governance: Brazil and South Africa”. South African Journal of International Affairs v. 26, n. 3, p. 395-412, 2019.
EWING, D. Jane’s Underwater Warfare Systems 2011-2012. Alexandria: Jane’s Information Group, 2011.
FONTENOY, PE. Submarines: An Illustrated History of Their Impact Illustrated Edition. Santa Barbara (Calif): ABC-CLIO, 2007.
FRIBOURG, C. La propulsion nucléaire des navires. http://www.energethique.com/ applications/Propulsion_nucleaire_des_navires.htm, nd.
FRIEDMAN, N. Submarine Design and Development. Annapolis (MD): Naval Institute Press, 1984.
GABINO, A. “Câmara dos Deputados Debate Transferência de Tecnologia e Nacionalização de Produtos de defesa”. Revista Operacional, August 8, 2014. https://www.revistaoperacional.com.br/2014/md/camara-dos-deputados-debate-transferencia-de-tecnologia-e-nacionalizacao-de-produtos-de-defesa/
GARDNER, WJR. Anti-Submarine Warfare. London; Washington (DC): Potomac Books Inc, 1996.
GATES, PJ, & LYNN, NM. Ships, Submarines and the Sea. London; Washington (DC): Brassey’s Inc, 1990.
HAYNES, P. “What U.S. Navy Strategists and Defense Planners Should Think about in the Era of Maritime Great Power Competition.” Defense & Security Analysis v. 36, n. 1, p. 101–8, 2020.
HERVEY, JB. Submarines. London; New York: Potomac Books Inc, 1994.
HUAN, C. & MOULIN, J. Les sous-marins français 1945-2000. Rennes Cedex: Marines Éditions, 2010.
HUBER, MM. Chokepoint Control: Operational Challenges for Blue-Water Navies. Washington (DC): National War College, 2003.
HUGHES, W & GIRRIER, R. Fleet Tactics And Naval Operations, Third Edition. Annapolis (MD): Naval Institute Press, 2018.
IAEA — INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY. Agreement of 13 December 1991 Between the Republic of Argentina, the Federative Republic of Brazil, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards. Vienna: The International Atomic Energy Agency. INFCIRC 435 [The Quadripartite Agreement], 1994.
IPPOLITO JR, TD. Effects of Variation of Uranium Enrichment on Nuclear Submarine Reactor Design. Dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990.
IZIQUE, C. “O Submarino que dá luz”. Pesquisa Fapesp v. 139, p. 30-33, 2007.
KASSENOVA, T. Brazil’s Nuclear Kaleidoscope: an Evolving Identity. Washington (DC): Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2014.
KASSENOVA, T. Brazil, Argentina, and the Politics of Global Nonproliferation and Nuclear Safeguards. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 29, 2016. http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/11/29/brazil-argentina-and-politics-of-globalnonproliferation- and-nuclear-safeguards-pub-66286
KOPTE, S; RENNER, M & WILKE, P. “The cost of disarmament: Dismantlement of weapons and the disposal of military surplus”. The Nonproliferation Review v. 3, n. 2, p. 33-45, 1996.
KOPTE, S. Nuclear Submarine Decommissioning and Related Problems. Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion, 1997.
KORMILITSIN, YV & KHALIZEV, OK. Theory of Submarine Design. London: Hard Cover, 2001.
LEONG, AKW. “Are two subs enough? Malaysia’s small submarine force and lessons from strategic history”. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, v. 8, n. 4, p. 298-307, 2016.
MARINHA DO BRASILProjeto e Construção. s.d.. Available at:
McCUE, B. U-Boats in the Bay of Biscay: An Essay in Operations Analysis. Xlibris Corporation, 2008.
MILLER, D. Modern Submarine Warfare. New York: Crescent, 1987.
MILLER, DMO, & MILLER, C. Modern Naval Combat. Salamander Books Ltd, 2001.
MORRISON, SL. “U.S. Naval Battle Force Changes, 1 January 2010-31 December 2010.” US Naval Institute Proceedings, May, p. 106-120, 2011.
MURRAY, RL. Nuclear Energy: An Introduction to Concepts, Systems, and Applications of Nuclear Processes. 5th Edition. Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2001.
NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE NTI. Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine. Washington: D. C., Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2015. http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-capabilities
OLIVEIRA, LK; CEPIK, M & BRITTES, PVP. “O Pré-Sal e a Segurança do Atlântico Sul: A defesa em camadas e o papel da integração sul-americana”. Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval 20 1, p. 139-164, 2014.
PADILHA, L. “Submarino Nuclear Brasileiro ‘Álvaro Alberto’ SN 10.” Defesa Aérea e Naval, December 7th, 2012, https://www.defesaaereanaval.com.br/submarino-nuclearbrasileiro- alvaro-alberto-sn-10/ Retrieved September 5th, 2016.
POLMAR, n. & MOORE, KJ. Cold War Submarines: The Design and Construction of U.S. and Soviet Submarines, 1945-2001. Washington: D.C, Potomac Books Inc, 2003.
POMPER, ME & HUNTINGTON, W. Interview with Odair Gonçalves, President of Brazil’s Nuclear Energy Commission. Arms Control Association, September 28, 2005, https://www.armscontrol.org/20050928_Goncalves
PROENÇA JR., D. & LESSA, MA. “Brazilian national defence policy and strategy reviewed as a unity”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, v. 60, n. 2, p. e010, 2017. Epub January 18, 2018
PSALLIDAS, K; WHITCOMB, CA & HOOTMAN, JC. “Design of Conventional Submarines with Advanced Air Independent Propulsion Systems and Determination of Corresponding Theater-Level Impacts”. Naval Engineering Journal, n. 1, 2010, p. 111-123.
RABKIN, NJ et al. Nuclear-powered ships: Accounting for shipyard costs and nuclear waste disposal plans. Washington (DC): United States General Accounting Office, 1992.
RAGHEB, M. “Nuclear Naval Propulsion”. In Nuclear Power - Deployment, Operation and Sustainability, edited by Pavel Tsvetkov. Intech, 2011. https://www.intechopen.com/books/nuclear-power-deployment-operation-andsustainability/ nuclear-naval-propulsion
RASKA, M. “Diesel-Electric Submarine Modernization in Asia: The Role of Air-Independent Propulsion Systems.” In Emerging Critical Technologies and Security in the Asia-Pacific, edited by RA Bitzinger, London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016, p. 91–106
RAWSON, KJ & TUPPER, EC. Basic Ship Theory. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2001.
ROSA, JL. “Submarinos podem atrasar mais se houver novos cortes”. Valor Econômico, 2018. Available at:
SÁ, A. “Brazil’s Nuclear Submarine Program.” The Nonproliferation Review v. 22, n. 1, p. 3–25, 2015.
SILVA, ARA & JAA DE MOURA. “The Brazilian Navy’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Program.” The Nonproliferation Review v. 23, n. 5–6, p. 617–33, 2016.
SPELLER, I. Understanding Naval Warfare. London; New York: Routledge, 2014.
VILARDAGA, V. “A nova geração de submarinos brasileiros”. Isto É, 2018. Available at:
WAGNER, DH; MYLANDER, WC & SANDERS, TJ Eds). Naval Operations Analysis, Third Edition. Naval Institute Press, 1999.
WAITE, AD. Sonar for Practising Engineers. Chichester (West Sussex): Wiley, 2002.
WHITMAN, EC. “Air-Independent Propulsion”. Undersea Warfare, 2010. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_13/propulsion.htm, accessed 2019-06-30
WU, S. “The Modern Naval Fortress: An Additional Sea Denial Option for Coastal States.” Defence Studies v. 18, n. 1, p. 76–94, 2018.
ZIMMERMAN, S. Submarine Technology for the 21st Century. 2nd Edition. Victoria, B.C.: Trafford Publishing, 2000.
Publicado
09-01-2023
Como Citar
Lazzarotti Diniz Costa, E. P., & Proença Jr., D. (2023). Comparando a Eficácia das Frotas Submarinas de Propulsão Nuclear e Independente do Ar: uma metodologia para escolhas alternativas de projeto de força aplicada ao caso brasileiro. Estudos Internacionais: Revista De relações Internacionais Da PUC Minas, 10(2), 42-58. https://doi.org/10.5752/P.2317-773X.2022v10n2p42-58
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