China-Russia relations in the age of the Belt and Road INITIATIVE: Mutual adaptation to asymmetry

Abstract

Bobo Lo’s concept of the ‘axe of convenience’ is an unavoidable anchor point in the debate on China-Russia relations and the potential for their ‘strategic association’. The author’s scepticism regarding the nature and sustainability of the strategic association between these two great powers rests on three aspects: the existence of conflicting interests both in bilateral relations and their regional integration projects; the design of the future international order intended to replace the ‘unipolar moment’ under US supremacy; and finally, the growing asymmetry between China and Russia in economic terms and other structural capacities apart from the army. This article reviews the debate on China-Russia relations based on these three factors. I thus analyse China-Russia relations since the launch of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regarding bilateral relations and the coordination of the BRI and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) led by Russia. This study draws three main conclusions. First, both Chinese and Russian leadership have made efforts to advance the relationship between their countries and to minimise the potential sources of conflict, which has led to real progress in the strategic association reaching not only bilateral but also regional cooperation. Second, there is still a strong imbalance between the actual content of the agreements and the rhetoric employed, particularly in Russia, to project this relationship. Third, a growing asymmetry has not prevented the deepening of the strategic association. There has been a mutual adaptation to an asymmetric relationship. Russia has accepted that China determines the economic and commercial nature of the Eurasian integration, whereas China has adapted to Russian narratives and requirements to keep alive its role of political leadership in Eurasia.