From Waltz to Chaos: How to Think about Transnational Illicit Flows Using Complex Adaptive Systems

Abstract

Two “Triple Border Areas” (TBAs) in South America are key to the global illicit economy: one between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, and another between Bolivia, Peru, and Chile. These zones are critical hubs for drug trafficking, money laundering, and smuggling. Criminal networks in these regions are highly sophisticated, employing tactics such as hidden compartments in vehicles, chemical camouflage, legal trade routes, encrypted communication, shell companies, and complex money laundering and corruption techniques to evade law enforcement. The illicit transport networks in the TBAs are involved in multiple transnational criminal activities and connected to global illicit flows. This article examines how these flows have adapted and evolved to counter state responses and changing socio-political and economic environments. Additionally, it explores how these flows converge and intersect with other illicit networks worldwide, highlighting the need for coordinated international efforts to combat transnational crime.