La Seguridad del Golfo Pérsico en una Nueva Era de Competencia Geopolítica Mundial
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5752/P.2317-773X.2022v10n3p53-69Palabras clave:
Competición geopolítica, Equilibrio de intereses, Seguridad del Golfo Pérsico, Complejo regional de seguridadResumen
A lo largo de las décadas, la seguridad de Oriente Medio se ha visto influida por las fuertes interdependencias regionales y mundiales en materia de seguridad. Desde la desaparición de la Guerra Fría, los Estados Unidos ha desempeñado un papel fundamental en la determinación de la seguridad de la región, y los Estados del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo dependen cada vez más de las garantías de seguridad estadounidenses. Sin embargo, el pivote estratégico de los Estados Unidos hacia la región de Asia-Pacífico y la creciente consolidación de China como potencia mundial han hecho que la dinámica de seguridad de Oriente Medio vuelva a cambiar. Este artículo emplea un marco de complejo de seguridad regional, emparejado con una lente teórica realista, para analizar cómo la creciente rivalidad sino-estadounidense afecta a la seguridad del Golfo Pérsico, identificando los intereses de estas dos potencias en Oriente Medio y la dinámica regional emergente.
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MEARSHEIMER, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton, 2001.
MEARSHEIMER, John. Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order. International Security. v. 43, n. 4, p. 7-50, 2019.
NISSENBAUM, Dion. Saudi Arabia Moves Toward Eventual Ties with Israel. The Wall Street Journal, 2021.
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SCHWELLER, Ronald. Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security. v. 19, n. 1, p. 72-107, 1994.
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BUZAN, Barry; WÆVER, Ole. Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS. China’s Arab Policy Paper, 2016. Disponível em: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1331683.shtml. Acesso em: 24 set. 2021.
COOK, Steven. Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East. CFR, 2021a. Disponível em: https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/dp-cook-no.-2.pdf. Acesso em: 18 nov. 2021.
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DA VINHA, Luis; DUTTON, Anthony. Embracing the Maverick: The Evolution of President Donald Trump’s Management of Foreign Policy-Making. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. v. 16, n. 1, p. 4-35, 2022.
DESIDERIO, Andrew. Senate Backs Biden Admin Weapons Sale to Saudi Arabia. POLITICO, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/12/07/senate-biden-saudi-arabia-523915. Acesso em: 17 jan. 2022.
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FALLAHI, Ebrahim. Iran-China Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap for Mutual Prosperity. Tehran Times, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/459437/Iran-China-strategic-partnership-a-roadmap-for-mutual-prosperity. Acesso em: 8 nov. 2021.
FASSIHI, Farnaz; MYERS, Steven. China, with $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast. The New York Times, 2021.
FUKUYAMA, Francis. The End of History? The National Interest. n. 16, p. 3-18, 1989.
FULTON, Fulton. The G.C.C. Countries and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Curbing Their Enthusiasm? Middle East Institute, 2017. Disponível em: https://www.mei.edu/publications/gcc-countries-and-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-curbing-their-enthusiasm. Acesso em: 8 out. 2021.
FULTON, Jonathan. Situating Saudi Arabia in China's Belt and Road Initiative. Asian Politics & Policy. v. 12, n. 3, p. 362-83, 2020.
GENERAL AUTHORITY FOR STATISTICS. Gross Domestic Product First Quarter. Saudi Arabia’s National Accounts Statistics, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/GDP%20release%20report%20Q1_%202021%20EN.pdf. Acesso em: 24 nov. 2021.
GLOBAL FIRE POWER. Middle East Military Strength, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-middle-east.php. Acesso em: 5 dez. 2021.
GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ. Final Statement of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, 2021. Disponível em: https://gds.gov.iq/final-statement-of-the-baghdad-conference-for-cooperation-and-partnership/. Acesso em: 30 sep. 2021.
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GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL. The Al-Ula Declaration Statement, 2021. Disponível em: https://gcc41.org/press-releases/the-al-ula-declaration. Acesso em: 18 sep. 2021.
HARVEY, Benjamin; HACAOGLU, Selcan. Erdogan’s Big Gamble: Taking on Mideast Powerbroker Saudi Arabia. Bloomberg, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/erdogan-s-big-gamble-taking-on-mideast-powerbroker-saudi-arabia#xj4y7vzkg. Acesso em: 28 dez. 2021.
HITMAN, Gadi; ZWILLING, Moti. Normalization with Israel: An Analysis of Social Networks Discourse Within Gulf States. Ethnopolitics., p. 1-27, 2021.
HINNEBUSCH, Raymond; EHTESHAMI, Anoushiravan. The Foreign Policies of Middle East States. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2014.
INSSG. Interim National Security Strategic Guidance of the United States, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf. Acesso em: 11 jan. 2022.
KERSTEIN, Benjamin. Outgoing Head of Mossad: Qatari Aid to Gaza “Got a Little Out of Control. The Algemeiner, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.algemeiner.com/2021/06/08/outgoing-head-of-mossad-qatari-aid-to-gaza-got-a-little-out-of-control/. Acesso em: 30 nov. 2021.
LIS, Jonathan; KUBOVICH, Yaniv. Netanyahu at Mossad Chief Ceremony: Israel Won’t Allow a Nuclear Iran, Even at Cost of Friction With US. Haaretz, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-netanyahu-we-cannot-allow-a-nuclear-armed-iran-even-at-cost-of-friction-with-u-s-1.9864125. Acesso em: 4 jan. 2022.
LUBOLS, Gordonl STROBEL, Warren. Secret Chinese Port Project in Persian Gulf Rattles US Relations With UAE. The Wall Street Journal, 2021.
MAYER, Maximilian. China’s Rise as Eurasian Power: The Revival of the Silk Road and Its Consequences. In MAYER, Maximilian, (ed.). Rethinking the Silk Road: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Emerging Eurasian Relations. Singapore, Springer, 2018.
MEARSHEIMER, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton, 2001.
MEARSHEIMER, John. Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order. International Security. v. 43, n. 4, p. 7-50, 2019.
NISSENBAUM, Dion. Saudi Arabia Moves Toward Eventual Ties with Israel. The Wall Street Journal, 2021.
NAUGHTON, Barry. China’s Global Economic Interactions. In SHAMBAUGH, David (Ed.). China and the World. New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.
NSS. National Security Strategy of The United States, 2017. Disponível em: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf. Acesso em: 6 out. 2021.
O’ROURKE, Ronald. Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense – Issues for Congress. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2021.
PAPA, Ilari. China’s Foreign Minister Tours the Middle East: Outcomes and Implications. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/chinas-foreign-minister-tours-middle-east-outcomes-and-implications. Acesso em: 17 ago. 2021.
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. Energy in China’s New Era. State Council of the People’s Republic of China, 2020. Disponível em: http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202012/21/content_WS5fe0572bc6d0f725769423cb.html. Acesso em: 7 jul. 2021.
SALMAN, Mohammad; PIEPER, Moritz; GEERAERTS, Gustaaf. Hedging in the Middle East and China-US Competition. Asian Politics & Policy. v. 7, n. 4, p. 575-596, 2015.
SCHWELLER, Ronald. Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security. v. 19, n. 1, p. 72-107, 1994.
SCOBELL, Andrew. Why the Middle East Matters to China. In EHTESHAMI, Anoushiravan; HORESH, Niv (Eds.). China’s Presence in the Middle East: The Implications of the One Belt, One Road Initiative. New York: Routledge,), pp. 9-23.
SHAMBAUGH, David. China’s Long March to Global Power. In SHAMBAUGH, David (Ed.). China and the World. New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.
SHAYAN, Fatemeh. Security in the Persian Gulf Region. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
SIAPALAN, Joseph; KALIN, Stephen. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Snub Malaysia’s Muslim Summit. Reuters, 2019. Disponível em: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-muslimalliance-idUSKBN1YM0G3. Acesso em: 13 ago. 2021.
THE WHITE HOUSE. Fact Sheet: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/12/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-launch-build-back-better-world-b3w-partnership/. Acesso em: 22 nov. 2021
TIMES OF ISRAEL. Israel Said to Approve $1.5 Billion Budget for Potential Strike on Iran. Times of Israel, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-approve-1-5-billion-budget-for-potential-strike-on-iran/. Acesso em: 16 dez. 2021.
TURKISH MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Policy of Zero Problems with our Neighbors, 2021. Disponível em: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/policy-of-zero-problems-with-our-neighbors.en.mfa. Acesso em: 28 nov. 2021.
US INSTITUTE OF PEACE. Iran-Saudi Talks, 2021. Disponível em: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2021/may/04/secret-iran-saudi-talks. Acesso em: 7 nov. 2021.
US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE. Middle East/North Africa (MENA), 2021. Disponível em: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/middle-east/north-africa. Acesso em: 8 jan. 2022.
WALT, Stephen. Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security. v. 9, n. 4, p. 3-43, 1985.
WALT, Stephen. China Wants a “Rules-Based International Order,” Too. Foreign Policy, 2021. Disponível em: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/31/china-wants-a-rules-based-international-order-too/. Acesso em: 21 ago. 2021.
WILLIAMS, Jordan. Sullivan Raised Normalizing Relations with Israel During Meeting with Saudi Crown Prince. The Hill, 2021. Disponível em: https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/577584-sullivan-raised-normalized-relations-with. Acesso em: 4 dez. 2021.
XINBO, Wu. China in Search of a Liberal Partnership International Order. International Affairs, v. 94, n. 5, p. 995-1018, 2018.
YOM, Sean. US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: The Logic of Hegemonic Retreat. Global Policy. v. 11, n. 1, p. 75-83, 2020.
Publicado
2023-07-23
Cómo citar
Alfaifi, T., & da Vinha, L. (2023). La Seguridad del Golfo Pérsico en una Nueva Era de Competencia Geopolítica Mundial. Estudos Internacionais: Revista De Relações Internacionais Da PUC Minas, 10(3), 53–69. https://doi.org/10.5752/P.2317-773X.2022v10n3p53-69
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